"Take Risks: If you win, you will be happy; if you lose, you will be wise. Nothing ventured, nothing gained."

Monday, October 31, 2011

Bank of Japan Intervention Trade & 4-Heads-Up Poker

Asian market open trade on Usd/Jpy upon Bank of Japan intervention.

Very swift 10 minute take-profit. The intervention was heavy, just look at the candle stick. Correct me if I'm wrong, Bank of Japan were buying the US dollars with Yen, so to make their Yen cheaper, so as to boost their export. It is no difference from China controlling Yuan (Renminbi) buying of treasury bills?

+49 pips

Was full ring cash gaming earlier, after I watched the chart in the US opening, but could not find a set-up. Table was tight. Half of them were only buying in short-stack, like 40bb? So they barely call pre-flop raises so I slowly blind steals. Short-stack players usually play a fold-shove style, not necessary through shoving pre-flop, but they raise pre-flop at such an amount that commit their stack even upon flop. So its a do-or-die when your in a hand against such, else if you can successfully check-raise their c-bet if they didn't hit.

Key hand occurs when one of this short stack re-raises 12 big blinds amount pre-flop after UTG min-raised, I shoved my stack with QQs. The min-raiser folded (phew, his stack was 100bb same as mine). Short stacker called and rolled up aces. Oh my fucki- and then flopped a Queen set before my swearing was done. Now I am at the other side of the course as compared to my last week bad beats.

Had a 4-man NLHE Heads-up Sit n' Go. First guy was good. I managed to discover his betting style when he had top pair, from calling a sure-lose river bet just to see his hole cards. Things were easier from there, and I also got lucky hitting sets about two hands. I finished the game earlier so I went over to observe the other table, watching the two possible opponents. Guy who won was shover, aggressive from what I observed.

I was surprise when the final table match started at how tight he was. I took the pots down for the first consecutive 12 hands. By then effective stack was about 800. He began to become "personal" about my raises. Meaning he shoved whenever I raises, and check/call whenever I call. I noticed in heads-up there are players who get emotional or tilt and their betting style began to have a big difference. And he began to exploit this shoving style, knowing I wouldn't risk giving him a chance to double-up.

Hand #14

BB: t690  34.50 BBs
Hero (BTN/SB): t2310  115.50 BBs

Pre Flop: (t30) Hero is BTN/SB with Q of spades A of hearts
Hero raises to t40, BB calls t20

Flop: (t80) 3 of clubs J of hearts T of spades (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets t40, BB calls t40

Turn: (t160) 7 of hearts (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets t40, BB raises to t610 all in, Hero folds

Final Pot: t240
BB wins t240

Hand #15

View hand 1498426
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

BTN/SB: t810 40.50 BBs
Hero (BB): t2190 109.50 BBs

Pre Flop: (t30) Hero is BB with 2 of hearts K of hearts
BTN/SB calls t10, Hero checks

Flop: (t40) 5 of clubs A of diamonds T of hearts (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN/SB checks

Turn: (t40) 6 of spades (2 players)
Hero bets t40, BTN/SB raises to t790 all in, Hero folds

Final Pot: t120
BTN/SB wins t120

Hand #16

View hand 1498427
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

BB: t870 43.50 BBs
Hero (BTN/SB): t2130 106.50 BBs

Pre Flop: (t30) Hero is BTN/SB with 5 of hearts 9 of spades
Hero calls t10, BB checks

Flop: (t40) 7 of spades A of diamonds 3 of hearts (2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks

Turn: (t40) J of diamonds (2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks

River: (t40) 5 of diamonds (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets t40, BB calls t40

Final Pot: t120
BB shows 7 of diamonds 6 of hearts (a pair of Sevens)
Hero shows 5 of hearts 9 of spades (a pair of Fives)
BB wins t120

Hand #17

BTN/SB: t930 46.50 BBs
Hero (BB): t2070 103.50 BBs

Pre Flop: (t30) Hero is BB with 8 of clubs A of diamonds
1 fold

Final Pot: t30
Hero mucks 8 of clubs A of diamonds
Hero wins t20
(Rake: t10)

Last Hand

BB: t920 46 BBs
Hero (BTN/SB): t2080 104 BBs

Pre Flop: (t30) Hero is BTN/SB with T of spades 4 of hearts
Hero raises to t40, BB raises to t120, Hero calls t80

Flop: (t240) J of diamonds J of hearts 5 of hearts (2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks

Turn: (t240) T of diamonds (2 players)
BB bets t800 all in, Hero calls t800

River: (t1840) J of spades (2 players - 1 is all in)

Final Pot: t1840
BB shows A of diamonds Q of diamonds (three of a kind, Jacks)
Hero shows T of spades 4 of hearts (a full house, Jacks full of Tens)
Hero wins t1840

He probably thought I wouldn't hit the paired flop and turn so he could either win a high card by river or make me fold immediately, since his previous shoves has been met with high fold equity from me. But wrong timing for him and right timing lucky turn for me. 

Good luck for the new month friends!


Sunday, October 30, 2011

October Review & Why I Can't Scalp

FXDD: -12%
Oanda: +12%
Poker: b/e

The account size between FXDD & Oanda is quite different. I thought about withdrawing from my FXDD funds and put into my Oanda, but what makes me stay put is the fixed spread FXDD provides even during news trade. But I can't download MetaTrader into my iMac anymore, so it is still hard for me to trade through the iPad.

Overall, the first half of the month was inactive. Most of my actions were very last two weeks of the month. I hope to keep the focus and maintain. Will still be using the same position size for my trades until I can move up further. I have also decided (countless times) to keep an excel for my monthly profit & loss, for all the above.

While calculating my October profit & loss, I was browsing through my year-to-date Oanda transaction history, and I learned something about myself. I can't scalp or take short-term trades, nor can I position trade. What worked best for me so far has been between intra-day trade to swing trade. Here is why I have to place my orders and walk away (not in the cafe):

Started the year with good grinds. It was consistent and I was up about 20%. During March, my capital was -30% or more in ONE night. Sitting down there firing n firing n firing trades like playing Strikers 1945 the more you press the better. Until one big super revenge trade that made a lucky come back.

Cooling period came and then I come back n started trading in June. I grind my way up again slowly and even reached the greenery! Until August, everything busto my account met another -20% tear-down.. in ONE night.

As for why I can't position trade, I think I can't step away from watching my trade progresses. If my trade is 200 pips away from take-profit, I will be watching the price at every thought of it. Very paranoid if you ask me.

Going forward, I hope I am not currently at the middle of my yearly vicious cycle and see another November ONE NIGHT BUSTO again (touch WOOD). Mid-November I will be out of job. So I will have so much time to trade & blog.

Meanwhile, you can take a look at a nice article by fxmadness.

Happy Halloween!


Friday, October 28, 2011

Boring Market to End the Week

Had my sell-limit at 1.4205 triggered overnight. Today Eur/Usd has been a very dry session from Asian session thru Europe all the way to the US. I woke up from 1.4171 ranging all the way until 2 hours before US open I closed my short at 1.4156, to end the week.

It is currently still ranging at this price at the point of writing. There has been bulls over the two days, not sure how long it will last. Will the gains be corrected? Risk aversion increase and then the bear takes over?

+49 pips

Hopefully I may get to do a super-long over-due monthly review this weekend. YAA.. only do when things are running good and abandon any review thingy when account got blew up.

But I think it is a good way to re-align myself, as well as a review on how I am going to approach trading upcoming months as well as my poker journey.

Happy trading people, have a nice weekend!


Thursday, October 27, 2011

Euro & Sterling Trades - Closed


After trying to hard to beat the resistance around 1.3950, it has finally broken up, now dancing its way towards next fibo 1.42. During the start of EU summit, Eur/Usd dropped towards 1.3800. Hopes dashed. I followed @kathylienfx twitter closely. It makes sense that EU can't afford not to have plans, but the market reactions was a wild one indeed.

Price recovered by Asian opening and was a relief, along with EU news that the leaders have worked late at night to come up with a comprehensive rescue plan for the region. Price does break up beautifully, just that my exit still doesn't makes sense. But thankful it has been a profit after last night madness.

+67 pips

Currently sell-limit placed at 1.42


Had another long on the cables. Another one I felt my exit point doesn't make sense either. It was way below my original take-profit basing on Daily. Now it is 40 pips higher than where I closed.

+66 pips

Risk sentiments are strong right now, what about next week?

Useful site I been using. Kind of a guide, but don't completely rely on it - ForexLive.


Tuesday, October 25, 2011

Stop Your Itchy Ass

My previous post Eur/Usd order did not get triggered. As for Aud/Usd order, I have to say it was a classic example of a noob mistake once again. Using Daily chart... here is what happened..

Day 1: Trade triggered and went up in my favor..

Day 2: Trade retraces to -90 pips.. ten pips away from my stop/loss.. but I did not get stopped..

Day 3: Trade went up +120 pips.. still a hundred pips away from my take-profit.. prefer to stick to my system..

Day 4: Trade went down to +60.. got worried.. went to adjust my take-profit to +100 pips..as I thought to myself I should have closed it then... also adjusted my stop/loss to -20pips...

Day 5 morning: stop/loss hit.. -20pips

Day 8: see chart..

...my very first original +200 pips profit would have been hit, plus my very first original stop/loss wouldn't have been hit either. This is what we call backside itchy.

Buying and selling is so easy. But to master the technique of such to profitably is a totally different story. It drive one to nuts. I remember those days when me and Bottle executed our very first trade at the same time scream I AM A FOREX TRADER!! WOOO!! Lol.....you know what I mean.

Had a short scalp off Xau/Usd. Very dangerous move:

..what my take-profit hit was only half of the movement.. though it retraces back up soon after. 

Currently in Eur/Usd trade... I should have my buy-stop on above the resistance around 1.3970. Instead I got in at previous high 1.3950... and it never went back up. It does went up a while just that it just keep getting knocked back down. Chart:

..an obvious heavy resistance.

My Gbp/Usd trade.. also having a hard time breaking up 1.6000:

Taking a longer swing trades. Keep you guys posted.

As for poker, had bad swings past two days. *warning rantings on bad beats ahead*

Hand 1:
Me: AK
Flop: AKQ

Guy A raises 5bb, Guy B raises 25bb, I reraises all-in.
Guy A calls, Guy B fold.

Guy A turn over QQ.

Hand 2:
Me: KK
All-in and opponent flopped an ace.

Hand 3:
Me: JJ
All-in and opponent hit straight on river.

Hand 4:
Me: AA (finally)
Check-called all the way and shoved on river.

Board: Q 7 5 T 2

Guy turn over QQ.

I took most of the above less personally than I would have had previous (smashing window slamming mouse). The last hand on AA really had me. I just took a walk outside the hallway and take in deep breaths. No more violence. It doesn't solve anything I realised.

I came back after cooling off to play a heads-up match SNG. Man, was the longest session I ever had (not sex) from 10/20blinds to 80/160. More than 100 hands lol. Big swings. I could have finish him off once or twice but didn't, when he called my nuts. One thing that I do not master is whether all-in (seems like over-betting) when you have the nuts, or let him call a very justifiable pot-odds? Because you might end up winning nothing when you shove and he folds. Wasn't my day though when I jammed Turn with 13 outs and loss.

Anyway I am still in trade now US session is opening. Good luck to your trading / at the tables!


Monday, October 17, 2011

Eur/Usd, Aud/Usd Set-Ups, 27 Sit n' Go

Good start of the week. Open up my stocks portfolio it was finally recovering nicely. It has been red for the past weeks. Quite relief, though I am intending to put them long term, like say 3-4 years.

I resigned my job, without a job. Planning to take a break, trade full-time for the time being as a try-out. Go holidays and then resume finding a job. Sounds crazy to a lot but this is something that I feel I need right now. I am really glad I have family and girlfriend and some friends support on this. As I do not have much burden at the moment, I think it is an opportunity. When my expensive house come in 2014, I will be in debt for at least 20 years!

After serving my notice period, I will have more focus on trading and blog more. I can't say I will put poker aside too, I love it. But even USA, the country of freedom has had online poker banned, I wonder how long can this dream last in my country, to just a hobby.

Came home tonight planning to do a few trade set-up. I wasn't blogging because I simply wasn't active. Posting up a few of my set-up. Basically based on price actions.

Long set-up. If price go up to hit the square, my limit order..
Long: 1.4
Target: 1.45
Stop/loss: 1.36

Long: 1.0230
Target: 1.0430
Stop/loss: 1.01

Proceed to grind poker. Had it for the past 3 hours. Grinding cash games and tried out a 27-men Sit n' Go. I quickly knocked out 2 guys early game, leading the game first half. Struggling in my second half, I managed to take a lot of calculated risks. One thing I learned from studying and playing with a lot of players live, I take more risks now. Unlike previously, I was way too tight. I played poker like only throwing into a sure-win. So I always got grind slowly by others and most situations, end up short stack.

What I do mean by taking risk? When I have better hole cards, I tend to call raises or raises more. When you have high expected value, you want to make a bigger pot. When you got (suited) connectors or marginal hands, you may just want to see cheap flops. Like investments, managing your risk:reward ratio.

On the other hand, I put in a number of deceiving moves or bluffs in my game these days. Raise with trash once in a while. You need to pay a bit to create a "metagame" depending on situations. Every investments need to PAY. Check-raising used to be crazy to me. But it does wonders. No one does it perfectly trying for the first few times. I am still learning. I even got scolded by another player "stupid raise" the other day. Well, nowadays I ignore online chat. Take them as drunkards.

I avoided more than 2-way all-ins during the bubble of the tournament. My firstime into money finishes for 27-SNG and I cashed out in 2nd place. Chiplead had more than 10 times my stack during heads-up. But I was very happy with the result already. Doubled-up in cash game. Avoiding multi-table because I still suck and I know it.

Played a few heads-up with my buddy in Home Games. Even he has commented that I have been aggressive unlike lastime - where my ball shrink when I was check-raised. But ironically, he commented it when I called his nuts. A**!

Anyway, this is how for the night. Will update my results next post.

Related Posts Plugin for WordPress, Blogger...