Non-Farm Payroll Trade

Aud/Usd - The only pair going straight down during the bearish USD news. I was watching it along with Eur/Usd, Gbp/Usd & Usd/Jpy. Yen had the sharpest rally I would say. I thought the aussie should be a little lag. But it was losing in Eur/Aud & Gbp/Aud as well. 

I waited for the momentum (as well as the spread price to drop) to weaken and went in. I wanted to ride, but I also need a target. So I closed out at Chikou Span resistance and that was it.. one more lucky escape!

+42 pips

Usd/Jpy - Very nice fall, fallen too quick to catch the move.

Have a Good Friday and enjoy the long weekend! Wish y'all an advance Happy Easter!

Black.

Let It Go, Let It Go, Let It Go~

Interesting trade above for the Aud/Usd. Went long in view of the cross-over sma lines. My target was at 1.07, risk:reward of about 1:1. Price went up thrice towards a good 50 pips for me to bag (which I usually do), but I just waited for it to break it up, it didn't. So I closed it at +11 pips prior to the Non-Farm Payroll announcement.

Just a short scalp for about +18 pips on the announcement, on Eur/Usd. Eur/Usd quickly reacted to the news, falling from 1.319x to 1.316x right before I tried to click the sell button, more brutal than the 10 pip-spread during the actual minute of the data release. 

I supposed some of you are still trading at the moment, this is it for me for the week. Have a great weekend!

Black.

Non-Farm Payroll - USD All Green

I was sitting by the side lines. But every movement means money, and still, greed got to me.

If only I maintained my very first short position in the Eur/Usd..

Nice come back for Gbp/Usd.. otherwise I burnt and knock my head again..

Scalping the NFP transactions... very easy to blow up account.

Have a nice weekend!

Black.

USD/CAD down but not out....

A cold chilly night, im bored... itchy.. urge came.. urge to click n trade. Never been able to totally cast this bad habit out. It has been alot better though.

So when shit happens, u can only hope that the damage can be minimized, better still... profit from it. But tonight isnt going to be a easy night.

The above printscreen image maybe the ugliest u have even seen, im sorry but im still very much a [accessories >> paint] user.

Time is 2000 local time, 2 datas pointing weakness in CAD... thats when i went in LONG on USD/CAD, entry level @ "1" . After entry, it has been hovering around that area...

Then came 2130 local time, green datas for USD, it confirms my believe that this pair with go higher... BUT!!!! Prices plunge down for dont know what fciasjcsax reason, and end that 5min session with a long shadow.. Sadly, my stop loss got triggered as a result. Thats for "2".

Went LONG again, on "3", targetting around "4" area.. TP hit, profitted 5pips at the end of the day.. Moral of the story? Market doesnt care about ur predictions or whatsoever, its merciless i guess??

But im happy to end green for the day after a scare at the start...

Bottle

Break-even Week for Trading

Got to blog at this hour because today is a public holiday in Singapore. Selamat Hari Raya Haji to our Muslim brothers! Its pretty sunny day and great that it is not rainy.

After all the battles with the market last week, I ended it break-even. Summary:

Usd/Jpy
Got a great trade during Japan BOJ intervention, rode along upside and exited swiftly. Besides the intervention, it became one of the most boring pair to trade the rest of the week.

Eur/Usd
Had a bad trade in Eur/Usd. Followed by an order off resistance, which bounces off nicely and caught a 56 pips.

Aud/Usd
Besides the RBA rate announcement last week, which they -0.25% of the aussie and I caught the downside, I had bad trading with the pair during Non-farm payroll. I only traded the aussie during NFP. Bad trading once again. Another good reason why I should walked away after placing my positions to enter. I sat down beforehand telling myself just to watch the order get hit else don't touch. Despite a very shallow movement after the announcement, I still entered. This discipline thingy seems like always a hundred miles away.

Poker

Been bad week. Need some serious thought and re-alignment. If it is time to walk away, walk away. 

Good luck people for the brand new week!

Black.

7 Jan, Non-Farm Payroll

I know I said that I shouldnt be trading NFP anymore, but I decided to take on it tonight, on a different approach - an approach I used in the previous major data release trade some time back.

The forecast was bearish for the dollar, the actual data, unemployment rate was better, but the Non-Farm employment change was 103K, not as worst than forecast, but still very bearish. Here was my unbiased approach tonight:

Few minutes before the release, price was hovering 1.2960.

Buy-stop: 1.2980 (5000 units)

Stop/loss: 1.2970

Take-profit: 1.3 (I changed to 1.3050 later which was a stupid move, because I have to close my position manually, I may experience slippage like before. NFP have super high volatile movement.)

Sell-stop: 1.2940 (5000 units)

Stop/loss: 1.2960

Take-profit: 1.292

The point of this approach is to enter at the single spike or dip, and set tp & sl tight so that you get auto-exit instead of closing manually. I was lucky enough to close without slippage. +13 pips and thats for me tonight. The long and juicy candlestick looked attractive enough to grind for more but thats how I had huge lost in previous NFPs, when after going in for more I always ended telling myself I shouldn't have made myself stuck in some kind of situation. So that is all for the night.

Good luck to your trading and enjoy the weekend people.

Black.

3 Sep, Eur/Usd - Non-Farm Payroll

Frustrating night on NFP.

From start, I sold at bottom when slippage occur. I was too reckless. I thought they are always the same.

So most of the night, I was trying just to re-coup. And then I sold at top, big size (tilting again), I was at break-even and even some profit. But I held, I thought it would still go down. US data was bullish.

And thinking that it would go further down, I added another lot size short and thats where the root problem occurs. That last position caused me lost (overall) which I dont want end like this. I went back in and in and in like how it always occur.

My FXDD account got margin called twice. Year's profit gone plus some loss. My Oanda is still ok, hanging on where it is.

-8.46%

Fuck me. I am going nuts trying to trade the market. I should really find more discipline in myself.

6 Aug, Eur/Usd - Non-Farm Payroll

Traded in the London session with my mobile in office today. Scalp a few pips there.

Wasn't very particular with Oanda during NFP release because right before the release the pip-spread went up to 10. So I switched my focus to FXDD's fixed spread of 2. I did scalp a bit off though, after Oanda's pip-spread went back down to about 1.2.

I was pretty bullish with the pair. I did not do a single sell in the movement. I lose too much to know that such news release is not for you to catch every kind of move in every direction. I just kept buying. Like the "catapult" in my June NFP, I juz kept buying at every pull back.

After I'm done, I left one small size pip to run. Because I noticed in some NFP night, the market does not go back to where it starts when the data is so bearish to USD. When the pair continue pushing up, I added another position. It struggle for some time there and expectedly, my balls shrink and I closed that position with only one pip. My original position continue to roll but also closed pre-maturely. Wasted about 20 pips there.

Short night and I'm gonna enjoy the long weekend.

+75 pips.

Black.

2 July, Eur/Usd - Non-Farm Payroll

Time of the month again. I fired up both my Oanda & FXDD, thinking that I would be trading with FXDD tonight, due to pip that spread as much as 3.5 (Eur/Usd) for Oanda. But NO. I didn't touch FXDD at all, not that I didnt touch, but it wouldnt allow me. As soon as the data release, I longed. FXDD MetaTrader4 replied me "No Connection". Wth? Otherwise it would be a "slippage" occurred, most of the time.

Forget it, I thought. I threw it aside and popped back to Oanda and started buying. I was up a lot. And then greed got me and I bought at 1.2610 resistance level. Dead meat. Based on the volatility, I was switching side all the time (between buying & selling). I switched very fast, taking bit by bit. Seriously, I couldnt count the amount of transaction I took tonight, let alone the pips.

After initial losses, I admit the revenge monster did appeared. But not towards the pips size luckily, but still diving back into the chart, dangerously. I don't know how to count the pips I took, if I try I would have post this next morning by the time I finish calculating the winning & losing pips.

I don't know why but I have the tendency to go in a lot of trades with Oanda. When I flipped back to MT4, I juz don't feel like doing anything. Exhausting, time to take a rest. Happy weekend everyone!

+0.6%


Black.

4 Jun, Eur/Usd - NFP

Hell of a night. 35 minutes prior to the non-farm payroll news i was already scalping, because price has already taken side - USD. Must be the forecast of the news. Frankly, i never follow fundamental news lately. But the forecast data from forexfactory.com looks promising this time.

It was still 30 minutes before the news release and price has made a new low, i bought the pairs and closed it clean. Price reach a range about 1.2045 - 1.2070 throughout before the news, i scalp a few times there. I made a mistake by selling at 1.2045 range when it was still 15 minutes prior to the release, price went back into range. i lost my night's profit from there.

I resisted taking another shot - almost immediately. because i wanted to wait for the news this time and i know im gonna sell. managed to curb my urge to revenge. There was a chinese saying that goes 'revenge for a man, 10 years is never too late'. sound a bit broken english here but thats the best i can translate. :)

That point of waiting time for the news, i was curious with Oanda's pip spread. i fire-up my FXGame account. Indeed, Eur/Usd pair went higher than Gbp/Usd! must have been the volume of traders in that pair.

Finally, 830pm (singapore time) strikes. the usual rubber band movement of that newborn candlestick emerged. price immediately went down - as if everyone sold without even digesting the data - Non-farm employment change was RED! 431K, forecast was 521K, although it was better than previous which was at 290K.

it juz seem to go down. i sold full size - at the bottom tip of the candle. $&(*)(#@^!!

the monthly elastic candlestick pull back up, looked as if like a catapult ready to be release. i sold another 2/3 size.

it pulled further up. i sold another 1/3 size - knowingly that Unemployment rate was green at 9.7%, on top of hourly earning green at 0.3%. but i somehow felt that this very candlestick will not leave such a long lower shadow behind - i juz felt so, no proof alright.

It was hard to handle. i need to put on my stop-losses and take-profit quickly. my earlier's night lost was when i got disconnected halfway and after 3 minutes trying to log back in my positions were stopped out.. screw Malta's connection as its not the firstime. Halfway thru, my Oanda FXGame for some reason got disconnected. It was intense.

Finally, the candle stick let loose. with the first plunge hitting two birds, my 2nd & 3rd position closed at take-profit. i let my first position of full size ran. i closed at the last bear candle (in the pic above) bottom 'meat' of the candle.. before price recover back up. sweet.

Lucky for tonight, lost size were 1/3 size but winning trades were mostly larger size. I can't go on after the last (ninth) trade of the night. Rest for the weekend. Happy trading.

+33 pips.

Black.

5 Mar, Aud/Usd, Eur/Usd, - NFP

Very messed up trades with NFP. i kept entering positions till i lost my original bias of the pair which i think will be bullish. price tricked me and tricked me and tricked me into entering, and go against me everytime i entered. and in the end after an hour, price came back to what it was before the announcement. how ironic. i seriously need some controlling in clicking the 'execute' button.

Forex market is a scary stuff, before u thought u have some consistency in reaping bit by bit, u slipped and fell back to square one.

-4.3%



Black

8 Jan - Non-Farm Payroll

I wasn't planning to trade on the NFP on Friday night, becuz i had dinner with my family and expected myself to be home late, my weekly target of 50 pips has been achieved. but i came home an hour before the news release and went through some news data and several blogs. Seeni has posted NFP analysis on the news release, and i was happy to see his updates again.

According to the bearish news of NFP release, -85K and 10% unemployment rate, price indeed spiked up. between the 30 minutes, there was a 118 pips long candle. with this kind of news + reaction, was tempting to get in, and i did. i was long, but i never even took the meat of the candlestick. recalling my last month's NFP trading experience, this time i set my s/l & t-p ready before execution to prevent slippage when closing position. once again, a very wide candle, i only rode a minute with a +12 pips.



Black

4th December NFP - Eur/Usd

Hello, its the time of the month. Non-Farm Payroll announcement for the month of November. For the past few days, price has been hovering between 1.5 to 1.51. I guess it was the deep breath before the plunge. Sat down 30 minutes before the announcement and went through some news link. I studied Kathy Lien's review on NFP, saw the tweets from FX360. Without the news announcement out, you can never know where the price will be heading. Its either you pend for the knee-jerk movement to stabilise, or u pick a side and fight.

I decide to use my break-out trade method. I picked on the USD side, partly based on the previous months NFP knee-jerk movement. Therefore i told myself to get out of the trade after max 20pips. Entered the trade a minute before the announcement, s/l set @ 20pips away with lot size that max loss of 3% of my account.

I can tell u my heart was beating damn fast and kinda shivering in the first fifteen minutes. Price dips 20+ in a split second, i try to close the trade. Failed, slippage.. Re-quote @ loss when retracement took place, i clicked Cancel. Price dips again 10+ pip, i try to close and fail again due to slippage. Finally close the first trade at 5 pips. All these happen in a minute.

Price movement still looks to continue breaking down. I short the second time. Recalling my first trade, i modified my orders so that S/L & T-P were in place. Closed trade @ 10pips. I thought that was it for me. This happened the nxt minute.

I decide to short again looking at the strong selling and a very good NFP result. But out of fear of retracement, i closed at 1pip.

Short the 4th trade @ 10 pips. Cuz it was closed to 1.5000, triple zero. Which i thought retracement could be strong. I was wrong. Price further dips to 1.4912 tonight (singapore time).

+27 pips for the night. I closed the 5th trade (long) @ 1pip after holding for 15 minute. i think with the good US news, seller is still very strong, i doubt price will go back to 1.5000 level for the time being. Lucky for me, price dips again after i closed.



While watching dips during the NFP announcement, i was closely watching other pairs. Of course, mostly are correlated, with USD rallying like nobody business. But.. to my surprise i saw the aussie rallying FIRST (when USD has already been spiking in other pairs) before giving way to the USD. That puzzles me.



I think at that moment they give birth to a new baby koala. Still did not make up for my week's loss pips. but anyway happy for the day's gain. Gotta take it step by step.

Black

Aud/Usd - US Non-Farm Payroll

Hello everyone, I know i'm supposed to be studying for exams.. but then, tonight is the first friday of the month... what? yes, US NFP aka Non-Farm Payroll annoucement will be out this day of the month. currently one of the most important USD data dat affect the price changes drastically.. (refer to my screenshot below). I managed to hold back trading past few days for studying, but NFP is so different man, the feeling is like all ur frens went to clubbing and u're alone at home, that kinda of feeling u noe? especially on a friday night or ur favourite retro night. ok anyway juz a short one here..

I was watching most of the currency pairs, especially Eur/Usd & Aud/Usd. After the annoucement, or should i say, right at the spot of the annoucement, as close as 9.30pm (singapore time), the candle stick appear in the chart like how david copperfield suddenly stand in the middle of the audience the lastime he came here for a performance.

just a minute b4 the annoucement, i was still contemplating to long or short. the forecast on NFP was good, but i was kinda draw-back when the ADP NFP Change on wednesday was below forecast. i short close to day high on Aud/Usd, setting S/L @ 5 pips above day high, which was about 20 pips away, much less than 2% MM. price will breakout either way, so no point setting it far away if it break-up u juz gonna lose more, thats how i felt. My take-profit was set on the next fibonacci. well, didnt get to ride the whole stick, but some encouragement during my study period, opps.. so guilty. anyway here is the report:

(Courtesy of ForexFactory.com)
USD Non-Farm Payroll Change: -190K (Actual) -173K (Forecast) -263K (Previous)
USD Unemployment Rate: 10.2% (Actual) 9.9% (Forecast) 9.8& (Previous)

Both Reds. and you wonder why majors (except for Usd/Jpy) spike towards the dollar? Beats me.

i love riding on retracement but i think i shall call it a day. have fun everybody, i need to go back to my books, wish me luck on my exams.. i wish u luck on ur trades :)

Black