"Take Risks: If you win, you will be happy; if you lose, you will be wise. Nothing ventured, nothing gained."

Friday, December 4, 2009

4th December NFP - Eur/Usd

Hello, its the time of the month. Non-Farm Payroll announcement for the month of November. For the past few days, price has been hovering between 1.5 to 1.51. I guess it was the deep breath before the plunge. Sat down 30 minutes before the announcement and went through some news link. I studied Kathy Lien's review on NFP, saw the tweets from FX360. Without the news announcement out, you can never know where the price will be heading. Its either you pend for the knee-jerk movement to stabilise, or u pick a side and fight.

I decide to use my break-out trade method. I picked on the USD side, partly based on the previous months NFP knee-jerk movement. Therefore i told myself to get out of the trade after max 20pips. Entered the trade a minute before the announcement, s/l set @ 20pips away with lot size that max loss of 3% of my account.

I can tell u my heart was beating damn fast and kinda shivering in the first fifteen minutes. Price dips 20+ in a split second, i try to close the trade. Failed, slippage.. Re-quote @ loss when retracement took place, i clicked Cancel. Price dips again 10+ pip, i try to close and fail again due to slippage. Finally close the first trade at 5 pips. All these happen in a minute.

Price movement still looks to continue breaking down. I short the second time. Recalling my first trade, i modified my orders so that S/L & T-P were in place. Closed trade @ 10pips. I thought that was it for me. This happened the nxt minute.

I decide to short again looking at the strong selling and a very good NFP result. But out of fear of retracement, i closed at 1pip.

Short the 4th trade @ 10 pips. Cuz it was closed to 1.5000, triple zero. Which i thought retracement could be strong. I was wrong. Price further dips to 1.4912 tonight (singapore time).

+27 pips for the night. I closed the 5th trade (long) @ 1pip after holding for 15 minute. i think with the good US news, seller is still very strong, i doubt price will go back to 1.5000 level for the time being. Lucky for me, price dips again after i closed.

While watching dips during the NFP announcement, i was closely watching other pairs. Of course, mostly are correlated, with USD rallying like nobody business. But.. to my surprise i saw the aussie rallying FIRST (when USD has already been spiking in other pairs) before giving way to the USD. That puzzles me.

I think at that moment they give birth to a new baby koala. Still did not make up for my week's loss pips. but anyway happy for the day's gain. Gotta take it step by step.


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