Thursday, December 31, 2009
Somehow i've lost the fire that i once possessed when i just started trading. That was like 4 months or more ago. I dont have the urge to go in trade anymore like some anxious kid, instead, im now more like a old man sitting by on my rocking chair waiting for money to drop. I rarely trade more than once per day and often set up the trade and went on to do other stuff without sticking my eyes on the chart. Good news or bad news? I read before that this is suppose to be good and yup i have to agree it is. Only one small bad point that is i learn lesser since i dont look up the chart that often. But the most impt point is, this month's account... Green
Had a little chat with Black, was quite disturbed... or rather worried by certain things he shared with me. No wrong, no right, true or not its up to individual i guess. Well u see, we just started this Forex trading not long ago and we pin high hopes on it. I myself set great targets in the coming future. So stuff like this often make me think u know?
The content goes like this... Its about our indicators and techniques that we all have been using is losing its power, its accuracy. In their words, bows and arrows against the chart. They are using gunships and tanks while we are still riding on our four legged beast with flesh as armor. How can we rely so much on techniques created in the 80s n 90s and expect success in modern market? These words strikes me. It sounded logical and true.
But whenever there is darkness, there will be light somewhere. I went around looking for successful traders (still) who uses techniques that i have been trying to master and learn. They are doing very well i should say. then i tell myself, have faith... Even modern war tacticians and strategist still read up ancient war strategies from great man from the past ya? U know... great man like those from the 3 kingdoms? Or u know "Shun Zhi Bing Fa" ( Sun Tzu , The Art Of War)? Yea they maybe bows and arrows, but... in the movie "Avatar" the good guys still win the war right??? Hahaha... Maybe for now, i will stick to what that has been proven to work.
Have faith. Keep flying and i believe we can succeed.
Rather be the Crow that soars high in the sky with dangers than be a bird in a cage.
Saturday, December 26, 2009
FXDD Holiday Hours
|Christmas Trading Customer Service|
|December 24||Close @ 2:00 PM EST||Close @ 3:00 PM EST|
|December 27||Open @ 5:00 PM EST||Open @ 5:00 PM EST|
|December 31||Close at 2:00 PM EST||Close at 3:00 PM EST|
|January 3||Open @ 5:00 PM EST||Open @ 5:00 PM EST|
Wednesday, December 23, 2009
Monday, December 21, 2009
This is a screenshot i captured from Aud/Usd Daily chart. im still watching and waiting for the nxt move. We should see what awaits us in the New York session. From this image, we can see price laying nicely on the brown 100 sma line, any possibility of breaking down? its been a big move and rally for the US last week, personally i am not very keen in entering at this point of time, dont really know what might happen next. wait for a reversal? lets see Eur/Usd below..
Another Daily time frame i captured. a smooth downtrend. looks like a doji formed, followed by currently a rising candle. still a very strong trend based on ADX indicator. stochastic oversold, but havent hook up. hmm.. noe wad? guess its a night where im juz gonna watch.
Friday, December 18, 2009
IF ONLY i had hold it, i didnt. price before the announcement was hovering upwards, did not want to kill my week's hard-earned profit i closed the shot. the movement was huge, but that 20 minutes of ups and downs after the announcement, price was only between 0.8985 to 0.9015.. which was around 30 pips range.
This was the firstime i wake up in the middle of the night to trade news. I did about 5 longs during the announcements. The dangers from the news trade i had was that, my lot size was getting bigger almost each time (+13 pips in total). Kinda get hold of the momentum of price movement, until things got a bit died off and i went back to bed. Getting back the momentum to sleep was the harder part of the night, after such intensity.
Will price break down based on the triangle i have been watching? Or will 100 SMA serve a strong support? Lets continue watching it. +114 pips for the week. I need a break for the rest of the week, yah.. till then :)
Tuesday, December 15, 2009
(+20 on the pair)
Usd/Jpy was also buy stop at price 89.00. I felt that if usd could push to that price, it should have no problem pushing through to 90.00. Japan's offering $81 billion stimulus package could cause some wild swings in its exchange rate. I am still looking forward to a bullish dollar. Another good thing i found out about buy/sell stop is that instead of entering for a reverse (buy/sell limit), u can actually place u somewhere below the support level (if u sell stop), or above the resistance (if u buy stop), becuz it goes with the flow of the price.
Current position on the Usd/Jpy. Protected my profits and did a 35 points trailing stop.
(+90 pips closed)
Symmetrical triangle still consolidating off Aud/Usd since yesterday's image. My sell stop is still waiting for an ambush.
Five Political Risks To Watch In Singapore
Under Reuters - Currencies section (can found under our blog links), u can also find some other Asia-Pacific risk factor like Indonesia, Malaysia to Australia. Happy Reading.
Monday, December 14, 2009
i wonder if you would notice the symmetrical triangle forming off Aud/Usd Daily chart. taking the US bias, i did a sell stop at 0.8990, taking a chance that if price happens to dip down away from the triangle. When a symmetrical triangle is formed, usually a breakout would take place, either direction. taking the fundamental datas as a guide for my execution this time.
As usual, blue lines in the chart showing a higher low and a lower low. this happens when the oscillator has been pushing down towards the over-sold level, yet the price is still maintaining higher. despite the sell stop in place, i did a long. price didnt move in my favour the first fifteen minutes. i could have done an average down, but seller looks strong. until the one hour candle bar is completed, price move in my favour. thats when the seller has given up, and the support held very well at below my price level. i did an average up and close the first position on t-p price and the second position when buyer looks like they were not able to push the price to the next level. +16 pips in total tonight.
Sunday, December 13, 2009
Anyway, i was suppose to upload my trading graphs for Nov 2009. Well, definitely something un-inspiring and something not for u to follow.
Can't believe i was profitting during my exam period with a few short day trades and then a downward elliot's wave forming right after when i was supposing to be more focused. hmm.
anyway, happy weekend to u guys, im off to do some job-searching and reviewing my trade journal and see if i can find out the problem lying beneath these losing trades.
Wednesday, December 9, 2009
Wad i prefer in intraday trading is the fact that u dont bring any open trades to sleep. It is something i am not used to, although i did during my demo days but they were demos, i dont dream of my trade hitting the s/l or the t-p every hour of the night. and eventually waking up in the middle of the night closing trade. but currently, working a full time job, and having some other commitments, i guess i may not have the luxury of time to glue my eyes to the charts for hours. a part of me wants to eat, shit and sleep with the chart. cuz i think i do have much to learn.. very much.
decided to use back my 1H / 4H chart and Daily (for eagle-eye view of the price action) after few days of failed scalping with 5M / 15M :( Basically short after a shooting star formed off 1H chart, and Stochastic was pointing down, and the good and MOST IMPORTANT thing was, short during downtrend. <<-- i learned a lot of hard experiences trying to pick rebounds against trend. protected my profits by manually trailing my s/l with my profits.. havent had this chance for sometimes :S Closed trade @ +50. Good enough to sleep.
Check out Gpb/Usd bounces sharply off of top downtrend line below. gotta go with the trend, go with the fashion. as the saying goes, the trend is ur fren, never backstab ur fren!
Monday, December 7, 2009
Yes thats whats happening now. The month of November has been a roller coaster ride for me.
First, i taste the sweetness of a "successful" trader. Every trade was entered correctly, things were all going so smoothly for me. Account doubled. I thought there i am in my own acres of diamonds, everything is within my reach. I am finally seeing things going for me and yes! The start of my profittable journey as a Forex trader. Just when i starts to fantasize even more as to what all these success can bring me in the near future. Lightning struck, the smooth journey i m enjoying proves to be too smooth... i slipped and fell back down straight to earth. I am human once again. Below is a graphic example of what happened.
Yes yes yes, i talked about the sweet part above and ended with bitterness. But whats after that? I would never imagine the aftermath could be so devastating. As you see from the image above, the first up spike is the doubled of my account. Sweet. Thereafter a sharp fall. That u can refer to one of my post on Stop Loss. Its about me being stupid n naive n not setting Stop Loss. It cleared my profits. Then i fought back. Same thing happen thereafter. Stop Loss not set.
Now i start the new month with a lost.
I mentioned about the devastating aftermath yea? Well, after these few traumatizing loss and bad experience, i became worried and paranoid about my trades. The confidence that i used to have when entering trades and riding thru them is gone. I hardly get into trades now even after my system tells me signals are right. And when i'm in trade, i would become anxious the moment trade go against me, eventually, i start to exit early and cut my profit short. These all sounds familiar aye? Yes.. these are all the things that i did and happened during my initial first or second month of my trading journey. Its like all the hardworks and "mental" building i have achieved and worked for previously just vanish.
Now is all about picking myself up and get back on track. Not sure where Black heard or read, he told me that we are in the crucial stage of our journey, the stage whereby the glow of the fire inside us starts to diminish... Guess its when most new traders couldnt sustain their account or just cant take it anymore and give up? Well, not sure if its true, but yes im feeling kinda low morale too. I started spending lesser time on charts.
Looks like i have to start getting books to read and get inspired! Get the hype back!!! AH WOOoO AHH WOOoOO!!
Basically a generic explanation on FX Trading and a little in sights of how our dollar is doing. Any i think is good to share it here. Link below, enjoy :)
my paper 7th Dec.
Friday, December 4, 2009
I decide to use my break-out trade method. I picked on the USD side, partly based on the previous months NFP knee-jerk movement. Therefore i told myself to get out of the trade after max 20pips. Entered the trade a minute before the announcement, s/l set @ 20pips away with lot size that max loss of 3% of my account.
I can tell u my heart was beating damn fast and kinda shivering in the first fifteen minutes. Price dips 20+ in a split second, i try to close the trade. Failed, slippage.. Re-quote @ loss when retracement took place, i clicked Cancel. Price dips again 10+ pip, i try to close and fail again due to slippage. Finally close the first trade at 5 pips. All these happen in a minute.
Price movement still looks to continue breaking down. I short the second time. Recalling my first trade, i modified my orders so that S/L & T-P were in place. Closed trade @ 10pips. I thought that was it for me. This happened the nxt minute.
I decide to short again looking at the strong selling and a very good NFP result. But out of fear of retracement, i closed at 1pip.
Short the 4th trade @ 10 pips. Cuz it was closed to 1.5000, triple zero. Which i thought retracement could be strong. I was wrong. Price further dips to 1.4912 tonight (singapore time).
+27 pips for the night. I closed the 5th trade (long) @ 1pip after holding for 15 minute. i think with the good US news, seller is still very strong, i doubt price will go back to 1.5000 level for the time being. Lucky for me, price dips again after i closed.
While watching dips during the NFP announcement, i was closely watching other pairs. Of course, mostly are correlated, with USD rallying like nobody business. But.. to my surprise i saw the aussie rallying FIRST (when USD has already been spiking in other pairs) before giving way to the USD. That puzzles me.
I think at that moment they give birth to a new baby koala. Still did not make up for my week's loss pips. but anyway happy for the day's gain. Gotta take it step by step.
Thursday, December 3, 2009
15min bar after US Unemployment Claims. Actual is better than forecast.
15min bar after ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI. Actual is worst than forecast.
Tuesday, December 1, 2009
If you were following, this aint the first time i got knocked by the pound. I guess i am not familiar with this pair enough to trade them. Im not sure to say if this pair is too volatile to do scalping, becuz it hit my s/l twice before proceeding to my desired direction. Sigh, blame it on my itchy hand today. I hate the way to start the month.
Im on short now @ 1.5075, but im having the fear of the Eur/Usd breaking 1.5100 level again.
Monday, November 30, 2009
Anyway wasn't that bad tonight, enter awhile before the start of New York session. Im scaling myself down to 5M & 15M chart. Dont want to confuse myself to bigger timeframe price action. Trying to stick to and practise on my intra-day trading style.
As usual, my first trade was always like a "testing water". Sometimes u enter a very very small lot, u tend to become more focus in the price movement. Thats what i read from an experienced trader. And when u get hold of that focus, u can 'feel' the market movement better. And i sacrificed my first trade for that, it hit my first trade s/l. And although i profit 4 out of 5 trades tonight, i didnt win big. +5 pips tonight. At least i find myself not revenging the loss trade, i picked them up 1 by 1, small piece by small piece.
Basically just watching price action, candlestick forming for confirmation. All my trades were very short while. I love my last trade. And im beginning to love Divergence Trading.
Check out the two pink line. A regular bearish divergence. What follows? Price dips. But never enter the trade solely on one signal. It came with Shooting Stars, Evening Doji Star, and top of my blue (down)trend line. I believe none of them should be served as the only signal for ur trade decision. But so far, they serve well, together.
Black November Report:
Due to school exams first half of the month, my number of trades this month are reduced by half. Lesson learned, i did not go into crazy revenge trade or big lot this month. Sadly, still making loss this month.
-44 pips. But these 44 pips were much safer pips than the ones in my previous months (Money Management). This makes me feel better. Im trying to approach my trades in a day-to-day basis, and not let my yesterday's loss affect today's trade. I think we all should do that.
Friday, November 27, 2009
I have been trying to discipline myself not to trade any time of the day when i could, juz because im working a full time job. i think i need to filter down when i can trade (the right session), and the right mentality (as in not when there is a family gathering or rushing to go out in an hour), in another words, i need be wad i call 'specialize'. from my previous posts, i think u can see that i have been using much indicators, which could be confusing me instead, becuz basically i did put there without much attention paid to some. so i decided to remove most of the indicators and only focuses some that i frequently use. don't want an information overload. it makes u much harder to decide into a trade.
Didn't scalp well on the New York session, my first trade was too eager to go in. But manage to recoup on my second trade after giving myself much time to analyse. As Bottle always said, wait for the right price to go in. I have a full time trader friend who told me last week after a catching up with him, he says, "You should get out of that exciting phase. Forex trading should be boring and mechanical".
It struck right into me. I guess he was right, i didnt thought of this. I think i still need time for this. We are human being, we need time to change.
-20 pips today.
I need consistency..
Thursday, November 26, 2009
Check out my markings in Pink. Although price hit to 1.5042 (continuing as i wrote this, a little heart pain if only if only i was still in the trade, but we have to have target in a trade), i set my t-p only at 1.5055. a short scalp of +8 pips only. thats it for my night.
Ok some stuff about the image. Its USD/CHF pair. 4H timeframe. Yellow is my signal. Green my entry and Red my target.
It starts with the Yellow circle giving me a signal. First white small candle shows weakness and unable to penetrate my FIBO. After that, a bullish candle appears and so is my Stochastic crossover going up. This are good signals and proven techniques. But, where is my entry going to be? Thats when patience come in. FYI, the price was about 10 to 15 pips above my entry at first. It hovers there for quite sometime. So if you are watching the price, the urge to enter is very strong. Fortunately, i was patient enough to wait till it hit my Buy Limit that i set just above the 5EMA. I see 5EMA as a support before it moves up. My Stop/Loss below the Bollinger lower band and TP(Red) on the next FIBO resisitance. Trailing stop in place. So this is a 100% profit trade.
But what if i entered the trade prematurely? I would be suffering a float loss at start and not be able to reach my trailing stop of 25 so soon. Well, its true that sometimes it missed my Buy Limit by abit when i do this, but this way protects me. By entering with a good price, my Stop Loss can be further(Withstand retrace) and my Target Profit can be nearer (Hit Faster) you see.
Yup thats all folks!! Patience patience!! I can do it! You can do it! WE CAN DO IT!
Well guys, tell you a secret, i HAVE BEEN LOSING!!!! You know, my previous post tells of not setting Stop Loss and getting my own ass ripped... yes yes it still haunts me... Having nightmares of candlesticks sticking in my throat... DONT REPEAT THE MISTAKE THAT I COMMITED!!!! So even when i post of good profittable trades, im still losing.. perhaps like some of you new guys out there. Im just sharing what i think works. But still, i believe that some day i will be up in the clouds... pissing down and smile ~~
Once you learn to quit, it becomes a habit. <==== I WONT QUIT!! AH WOO AH WOO!!
1. Major currencies leverage will be set at 100:1; all others will have leverage of 25:1. Affected currencies for 25:1 will be the USD/TRY and the USD/MXN. Gold and silver leverage will be set at 100:1.
2. Official FXDD account statements will show position offset on a FIFO (First in, First out) basis.
3. FXDD does not recognize hedging. Oppositing orders are offset immediately. Meaning you can no longer buy and sell the same currency pair at the same time on the same primary account.
4. No more daily MetaTrader statement via email. Official daily and monthly statements will be emailed directoy from back office.
And we're suppose to download the latest compliant version of Meta Trader before the implementation date. Oh dear, if you are under a US based broker, i'm sure majority of them are being regulated. Thats what happen whenever economic bubble burst happens, everything are being regulated again... causes restriction on innovation of financial instruments.. though regulation are for the benefit of preventing another recession..
Sadly, for FXDD users, we're given such a short notice period for changes. Meaning by the time market open next week, all ur positions have to be re-calculated based on the new leverage requirements. basically, we have only 2 1/2 days to get these done. what happens if u don't? if by the time market open next Monday and u're in a position too highly leveraged, u gonna get a MARGIN CALL! << note that this word SUCKS!
Well, anyway, small players like me ain't much affected, maybe yet. but pity those bigger players. maybe this isnt happening in foreign brokers areas like London, or Switzerland. Im sure one way or another, (switching broker or altering our money management with the new leverageetc) we all will get this thru' yea.
Tuesday, November 24, 2009
Meta Trader 4. Not sure if alot of you uses this platform. But one thing for sure is, Black and I do. I've got no problem with this platform, or rather i am so used to it now that i actually love this platform. All was good until yesterday. Take a look at the below chart before i carry on my shock discovery.
Ok as usual, some information on the above image. Its EUR/JPY pair. Red circle is where i did a long trade. White circle is my TP and the Yellow circle is where the highest was hit during that surge of price.
Ok my TP is 60pips away(White Circle). SL 40pips away(Just somewhere below the FIBO support). Custom set trailing stop 30pips. Notice that i had to custom set my trailing reason being the default given is only in multiple of 5s. 25 35 45 etc.
I left the trade to run and left for work. And when i got back, to my dismay, my SL was hit. Well, my trailing stop did not work!! As you can see from the point where i enter trade, a 50 pips was reached, so that means my trailing stop should kick in at 30pips profit and secure at least 1 to 20pips profit for me. But it didnt, unfortunately the trade went back and hit my SL. Well i thought i did a good job in eliminating the risk involve in this trade. Thats too bad eh?? =(
After which i checked with Black, he too remembered having the same problem when he was in AUD/USD trade. The trailing stop didnt kick in when it should. We were wondering what happened. I've used the default given trailing stops (25 35 45) though, it was good. It worked. So im wondering if its because of some errors or bug in the custom setting for trailing stops... Mayb next time i'll try in Demo.
Thats all folks! Do take note of this and share with us and everyone else if you too encounter this problem yea??
Monday, November 23, 2009
Fyi, the above trade was executed with 2 standard lot. dats why the rollover rate, and its gonna continue to increase for the next few days, provided the trade is still open. delicious? sadly, it was tested on a demo acct, so that i can show u the delicious taste of swap interest. IF ONLY I HAD USE LIVE !!! If only if only if only.. very typical slogan we use when trading..
Anyway, how does Swap works? it is the difference between the overnight interest between the two currencies. Difference? Yes, if u're in the position of the currency that has higher interest rate between the pair, u earn the swap.. and the amount is the difference between the two interest rate.
Take this example. If you have been reading the news past month, u would've know RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia) has hike their rate to 3.25%, and then to 3.5% currently. And as u can see, the Fed has been lying low on the USD rate that is close to zero, probably abt 0.25%. i can't go thru the exact mathematical calculation with u becuz i know u're not got read them.
im juz kidding, ok i admit i do not know the exact way to calculate it at the moment. i wish i know i would've share it here with u guys. therefore, based on above example, i longed Aud/Usd becuz im buying Aussie (and selling Dollar), thats why it earns me the interest in carrying overnight. on the other way round, if you were to have short this pair, needless to say, negative swap will be charged.
Different brokers have different rollover rates. And the rate changes daily. Hope this serves part of ur decision in trading. but i dont think u need to worry about this if ur an scalper or an intra-day trader cuz u would be unaffected.
Hello, followers of the Black Bottle, its the time of the month again~ no no not menstruation but its the november issue of the Forex Journal. i had better experience in buying this issue becuz u noe wad? if u had read my previous post on this, i was cheated TWO MICRO LOT! they had since slashed price from SGD$11 (quite exp to me consider the thickness of the magazine) to SGD$9.80 which i find it fairly reasonable. to top it off, purchasing it thru Times Bookstore @ Plaza Singapura, as a Times Member, i still enjoy a 5% discount which means to say i bought it at SGD$9.30.
Why would i need to subscribe monthly issue which can save me less dan 10 dollars a year? probably the time spent on looking for the magazine tho. i was expecting them to slightly reduce the subscription price since their monthly issue has already been reduced, but nope.
Anyway a little on the content on the issue, as u can see the cover page look very much like the previous issue. in fact, i almost thought they had only changed the colour of the mag cover! but not really, i guessed they have returned the previous glasses to retired trader Bob and had borrowed Uncle Jeff's much rectangular glasses for this issue. and probably flipped over the newspaper in the background. it is so "uncle" leh... the cover. even by putting cartoon currency symbol as magazine cover could have been better off than an old man's desk, ain't it?
Anyway, part of the reason that i bought this issue was still the content on trading techniques, monthly report on datas. it is quite up to date. and.. Kathy Lien's one of the new contributor for the issue! she shared the very first article on the review on the greenback, US dollars. Follow by Swing trading techniques and trading by PRICE ACTION! there's aso an article that talks about money management, the chinese yuan and monthly market outlook. i havent' finish reading though cuz i only bought it yesterday.
Talking about money management, i remember the October issue that i read there was something wrong about it. its article was about Tom (or was it John?) who lost his entire capital account in two weeks. there was minor error becuz it mentioned micro lot as $1, instead of 10cents. nothing major tho, juz might mislead new traders along the way.
I personally took about 2 months to understand why is a standard lot $10 per pip, mini lot $1 per pip, and $0.10 per pip for micro lot. i went thru babypips school again and again and again till i drill the thing into my mind. u need to do some calculation to understand, which is something that i suck at.
U can find the magazine in most presses. take some time off during non-trading periods and enjoy!!
Sunday, November 22, 2009
indeed, it is something like a Fx Trader's facebook. you sign up with an email, you upload your picture and you get to meet people. there are various features which i have yet to explore fully. *note* you have to have a LIVE trading account to complete the sign up. they have a 'read-only' software which track your trades. and then in ur dashboard, u can see the percentage of currensee traders who long or short a particular currency pairs.
by signing up or introducing ur friends etc, u get to earn "bucks" in their programme, where u can shop in their "market" and purchase training video, articles etc. that expires in one year time if i remembered correctly.
there are features where u can upload ur strategy and they will track ur progress. by teaming up with ur trader friends or newly made trader frens, u can track each other's progress. needless to say, there's discussion column much like a live chat or a forum.
i am only a day old on this network and still exploring, hopefully it would be of some help, making new friends from this very interesting features provided by the social networking site. and its global!
Wednesday, November 18, 2009
Key Entering Criteria:
- Enter at the moment before a major announcement, say US announcement for this case, a minute or two
- Check Forecast on announcement to have a bias on whether to long or short.
- S/L MUST be placed, i usually put about 10 - 15pips away, in case of "jerk" movement right at the time of announcement
- Place it at last candle tip / Parabolic SAR / Bollinger Band
- Still researching on more entering criteria.
Ok, take a look below.
Price break-down +21 within ten minutes after announcement. One of the thing i couldnt get it was, there were two announcement, and one was Red and the other was Green, which means to say one was GOOD and another was BAD for the USD.. which you gonna bias? It went smoothly down until it met my Fibo 38.2% level when there was an indication of reversal check out the purple candle next.
- Manual take-profit @ 15-30 pips (this creates a reward-to-risk ratio of 2:1 based on ur s/l)
- Manual trailing stop once profit approaching profit; that is if u wish to have ur profit run, but based on my encounters, there are always retracements on breakout.
- Exit if price hesitate too long, cuz there aint no breakout no more. why? check out what happen after i came out of shower while leaving my position on..
Kaput! S/L hit. Therefore, doing this technique of breakout trading has to be real FAST. u gotta be like what they say, a sniper. Saw opportunity enter fast, take profit, exit fast. I am still further testing this system becuz i believe it serves a good reward-to-risk ratio. Well, of cuz u need to anticipate major announcement before it happens. havent tried any other currencies though. check out forexfactory.com link on the right. u gotta know what kind of announcement is happening before u decide to enter a position.
Thats it for the night folks.
I had several bad experience with Stop Loss. Ever experience bad trades with the "touch and go" of your Stop Loss? Meaning the trade go against you at first, touching your Stop Loss and returning back on course towards your profit target?? Yes, thats the bad experience that i have with Stop Loss. So one day, i decided to not use it despite the importance of it (according to many books and pro traders).
So, i had several good trades, reaping 50 and 50 pips at a time. I got a streak of 5 to 6 trades profit. Feels good. I am on the way to hitting a 2 weeks continous profit. Account almost doubling. Then, one of my action destroy everything. You can say that maybe i am being over confident in myself. That evening i went in one of the highly violatile pairs, GBP/USD. I went in, and it starts to go against me. But somehow i felt confident that i am right in that trade(Due to the high hit percentage of all my previous trades). So i decided to do a average up or down or left or right, u know? To maximise my profit. After which, price starts to consolidate. I should have stop and withdraw from that trade since things are not going as planned. Yes u r right, i chose not to come out due to the floating lost. Worst, i chose to go work and leave it running WITHOUT setting my Stop Loss. I was telling myself, " No problem man, my TP will be hit somehow, if i set SL, there will be a chance that it will hit my SL and proceed to my TP"
Next thing when i come back and saw my trade, it shows -195 and -175. In terms of pips. O M G!!! Its disastrous, at that point of time i am totally clueless of what i should do. So i close them at around -190 and -170. It totally wipe out my hard work for that 2 weeks. I did a averaging down to maximise my profit! But who knows?? It helps to maximise my lost instead!!! WTF??? All my profits are gone and even eat into my capital for that month. I suffered a lost. A major one. Morale plunge into darkness.
HO HO HO!!! Everything is going so well until this. I learned the lesson a hard way.
What i've learned? Well, its obvious, the importance of Stop Loss yea? Nevermind that it got hit, what of importance is you win it back and dont let your losing trade ride even more. I had 5 to 6 trade profit streak. So whats the big deal of having 1 lost? Your hit percentage aint important at all. Dont worry if your 100% record becomes 90%. What important is, your capital. Your $$$!!
Last but not least, your confidence in trading. Its important that we have confidence, so that we are comfortable in entering trades, so that we wont enter trades too late, so that we wont whine and curse and swear when it actually turn out right if we were to follow our signals and indicators and trade. These are the good and right ways to utilize our confidence. But never be over confident. It makes you unwilling to accept lost. It makes you not wanting to accept lost and shift your SL away, soon a -50 becomes a -70 or even -100. Its disastrous. Keep your confidence in check. Mine went astray for that 1 or 2 days and there goes my hard work for 2 weeks.
Success is not final, failure is not fatal. It is the courage to continue that counts.
Thursday, November 12, 2009
After my darn exam (first paper) last night, came home to see Eur/Usd pushing up to 1.5030+ level. Seems resistance are pretty strong at whenever they push thru' the price of 1.5000. Ever watch the movie Troy? Its like the Greeks who are pushing hard through the frontline of the Troy army, but are always being strongly resisted by the archers of Troy. Who knows what will happen next? Maybe Euro will make a wooden horse and Usd will keep it and then there goes their resistance at 1.5000.
Check out the Blue trend line I drawn between the two vertical Red line. Top of the price candle and top of Stochastic Oscillator. Price is make making a Higher High (HH), and the oscillator is making a Lower High (LH), this is a signal of a regular bearish divergence. It indicate the Bulls are exhausted, warning of a possible trend change in direction. Well, thanks to babypips's Divergence Trading Cheat Sheet I printed out for reference.
Take profit off 33 pips at 1.5000, in case of price rebound at triple zeros level as I went to bed with the trades open. Hope some of these strategies made from me and Bottle's trades serve you at times, we are opened to discussion if there is anything that needs improvements / add-ons. =)
A little info for the image above. RED circle is my first entry. BLUE is my second entry and GREEN is my TP. The above pair is EUR/USD. 1H timeframe.
Ok like i said yesterday regarding the "Psychology" level of 1.5 + triple zero(000) as a very good resistant price. Even when i say that ytd, i've got doubts for my own words as well... So in order prove that my own theory really means something, i decided to put a Sell Limit @ 1.5008. THATS COMPLACENT! That explains the first RED circle, my indicator points otherwise but i choose to Sell Limit and went in trade despite of that. I even reminded to double confirm with indicators before going in during my previous post... Well i wasnt around to monitor on that. Was sleeping beside my workstation like a fucking pig when the price shoot up. See that big juicy even longer black candle(Black's top 5 favourite candlestick)? Yea luckily it didnt went up too far and hit my SL. I did a averaging down or up or left or right.. whatever u call that. Its purpose is for maximizing ur profit. Because i witness some price undecisiveness around there. That explains the second BLUE circle. After which is all about waiting patiently. TP is set about 10pips above my fibonacci level. Was afraid that it may not hit fibo reason being the Bollinger Lower Band happens to be around there as well. I thought it would be a good support (Bollinger + Fibo). And that is my GREEN circle.
Next morning i check my trade. TP hit and i am so happy. Well fyi Black was in the trade that night too. So we both profitted from this nice bounce. A good 50 - 60 pips is possible from this bounce. But now that this 1.5000 has been poke thru, pierce thru so many times... Its not longer tight anymore.. Ok i sounded wrong, but if u get what i mean.. it looks like it may not be that reliable anymore yea?? Well we can wait and see, we've got quite enough pips from it. Guess i'll enter again only if my indicator really support my claim this time round...
Thats all folks!!!! Happy Trading!!!
I've run out of quotes for the day...
Wednesday, November 11, 2009
Hello guys!! Bottle here. Wants to share something thats quite effective and useful with all of u guys out there who have been following up this blog =D
For some info on the above image. Its EUR/USD pair in 1H time frame. Between 10th to 11th Nov 2009.
Ok, like the title says, scalping at a "Psychology" resistant level of 1.5000. As we have previously saw in Black's post regarding the Psychology effects of double zeroes, the above scenario is one such example. To add weight to the above theory, 1.5000 is considered a very high price i suppose?
Well yes it still involve some risk by just putting a Sell Limit @ 1.5000. To minimize the risk, i use my indicators to help me double confirm if indeed, that a bounce from 1.5 is coming. Like my Stochastic. EMAs.
From the image we can see some fat juicy(Black's favourite) white candlestick. Realize that each bounce can reach a minimum of 30pips and maximum of 80 pips? Thats alot to achieve in an hour or so. Ytd night i reaped 40pips from it. Short @ 1.5000 and TP @ 1.4960.
But do take note of the Fundamental side of this. I tried doing it in "No news" timing so what effects they can bring is not known yet.*(at least to me) And also do have the patience to wait for it to retrace up, sometimes it happen to go above 1.5000 yea? This way ur risk can be lowered and profit maximised yea??
Bottle can do it! U CAN DO IT! Ok thats all folks hope it helps!
Being defeated is often a temporary condition. Giving up is what makes it permanent.
Sunday, November 8, 2009
As the saying goes, "A smooth sail never trains a skillful mariner."
We all learn throughout our journey, especially early period when our learning curve is the steepest, just like right now, me and Bottle. I'm fortunate enough to have a close partner in my trading journey, and we're definitely looking forward to our days, and years ahead in this. We're serious. And we enjoy making new trader friends and learning from one another.
In this post, I'm gonna share with you an article from a Forex Trader, and his early days. The author is Greg Sidelnikov. I wish I could write like him someday. But im sure the following article will catch the attention of new traders (MUST READ!) and even the old birds. I can really relate to alot of thoughts in words he wrote. Some right into my heart~ Sobz~, which ones? I quote the lines for u: "Like many other excited traders I started to trade without knowing much about this market. I would draw trend lines and think I was in business." <<-- So true ain't it?
For full article, here's the link:
The smart man learns from his mistakes, the wise man learns from the mistakes of others.
Saturday, November 7, 2009
Crowd, "OK BOTTLE STFU AND SHARE THE GOOD STUFF NOW!!! "
PS - The EMA lines are edited to be FAT and JUICY for your easy reference. My actual ones are slim and skinny. We are NICE people! =D
Ok some things to note before i go. The technique used in the above image is 5EMA crossing under 20 EMA in a 4H chart. Time of trade is around 10pm to 12am. Traded pairs EUR/JPY.
Note that RED line is 5 EMA while BLUE line is 20EMA. The red circle is the area of analysis. And the small blue circle is my point/price of entry.
It all started with those small candles consolidation as we can see right before my red circle. Then a long white candle came out. It signals break down. It also triggered what i've been waiting for. Crossunder of the EMAs. With the confirmation of my Stochastic ( both pointing down). I PATIENTLY waited for the candle to retrace back to the blue circled area. Exactly @ the Fibonacci resistance before go Short on the trade. Notice that it went even higher eh? Well mayb im not good enough or wat, i cant predict the exact level it will retrace to eh~ But at least i waited for a retrace of 10+ pips before i go in. Minimised my risk (farther SL) and maximised my profits!
Some thoughts to share - Reason i came out earlier is because market is closing @ 5am into the weekends. Usually i will TP near the support of the Fibonacci. And also due to me setting a target of 50pips for today. So i keep to my words. Just incase things happen eh... And true enough as u can see from the chart. If i were to be a little bit more greedy and set lower and goes to sleep. It would have retraced. Main objective is to go enjoy my weekends with ease. And not thinking of my Fx =D I have been losing countless hours of sleep during the weekdays due to Fx!! Running trades and stuff u know?
Last but not least. This Cross under technique was used in 4H chart reason being 4H chart filters out "noise". It tends to be more accurate. But at the expense of getting into the trend later u see. Give and take ya? Most impt thing? PROFIT!! So patience guys patience!!
I can trade this signal so can u!!!
Nothing great in this world has ever been accomplished without passion.
Friday, November 6, 2009
I was watching most of the currency pairs, especially Eur/Usd & Aud/Usd. After the annoucement, or should i say, right at the spot of the annoucement, as close as 9.30pm (singapore time), the candle stick appear in the chart like how david copperfield suddenly stand in the middle of the audience the lastime he came here for a performance.
just a minute b4 the annoucement, i was still contemplating to long or short. the forecast on NFP was good, but i was kinda draw-back when the ADP NFP Change on wednesday was below forecast. i short close to day high on Aud/Usd, setting S/L @ 5 pips above day high, which was about 20 pips away, much less than 2% MM. price will breakout either way, so no point setting it far away if it break-up u juz gonna lose more, thats how i felt. My take-profit was set on the next fibonacci. well, didnt get to ride the whole stick, but some encouragement during my study period, opps.. so guilty. anyway here is the report:
(Courtesy of ForexFactory.com)
USD Non-Farm Payroll Change: -190K (Actual) -173K (Forecast) -263K (Previous)
USD Unemployment Rate: 10.2% (Actual) 9.9% (Forecast) 9.8& (Previous)
Both Reds. and you wonder why majors (except for Usd/Jpy) spike towards the dollar? Beats me.
i love riding on retracement but i think i shall call it a day. have fun everybody, i need to go back to my books, wish me luck on my exams.. i wish u luck on ur trades :)
Wednesday, November 4, 2009
Monday, November 2, 2009
Ok lets get it started~~
Alright the above shows my transaction from start of my live account during AUGUST. Wasnt doing well at all from start. Until you see that cliff down there? I adopted a "One trade win all my lost back" mentality. So i traded with bigger lot. But end up going the other way. Suicide. And ya that is also the month where almost every fucking trade i went into goes against me! Really frustrating. You know, long price becomes resistance, short price becomes support this kinda thing. Screwed.
Last but not least, the month for OCTOBER. Finally i see some progress. Some light. Sticking to whatever rules and advise from pro traders. I SEE PROGRESS!! But... its really little compare to what i've lost in the previous months. This is really the progress that we need to keep ourself going. Keep ourself motivated. Is this a sign of a trend reversal? Well we shall see, there is still a long way to go. Lets start climbing slowly back to gaining back capital first.
Thats all folks!!
A Journey of a thousand miles starts with a single step
Friday, October 30, 2009
So as u can see, my time of using this technique is during NO NEWS period. And i also chose to ignore one of my indicators. Right or wrong? More tests needs to be carried out i guess.
We are still surviving, are we not?
Friday, October 23, 2009
The above, is Usd/Jpy yesterday 22 Oct 2009, where i dangerously shorted 20 pips off retracement from top of UPtrend. dangerous? yes, i believe so as i was trading against the trend. that was why i quickly took the pips and went to bed. Check out the price today..
23 October 2009. Price is still moving along the trendline. Well, let's juz watch. This is still at the price of good resistance. To top it off, there is a good forecasted USD Existing Home Sales coming up next.
Check that damn long candle in GpbUsd's chart TODAY! godammit! horny S.M. girls would love such a LONG LONG CANDLESTICK! congrats to those who "rode the stick", and well, sorry to those s/l that was wiped along the line.
Last day of the week, have patient, dont jump in, we always have a monday. :)
Black comment that i haven been updating for quite sometime and ask me to wake the fuckup and do something. I say OK!! I guess he is feeling cold in here alone. Seeing only posts ending with Your Sincerely Black Yours truely Black Regards Black Thank You Black. =D
NO! I haven got myself some ultimate chart smashing techniques that can let me earn a million overnight during these absence. Yes i've been trading and was doing quite good. I followed quite strictly to the rules i set for myself.. notice that i use the word "Quite". Indeed, i did stray away from Mr Discipline sometimes. Hence, some trades' profits were not maximised.
I have been scalping quite alot lately. Closing usually around 10 - 20 pips with slightly bigger lot. Highest hit profit size is 40pips using smaller lot. Due to the higher SL/TP hence smaller lot.
One secret to my small little puny success (it really counts for nth, but im proud of it!! Noob's style) on the above mentioned. Patience.
Its really simple. Once candlesticks and indicators shows a trend. I choose not to go in straight and instead, i wait for confirmations (etc candle close, crossover) After which still i wont go in, i will wait for it to really happen, then i will go in during retrace @ my FIBOs or Bollinger. The ultimate pussy style. But i rather u him she they anyone else call me pussy than getting myself a floating loss. Stuck in the middle of no where at the mercy of the chart. If u get wat i mean.
There are times when i waited for a good 2 hours for 2 Hourly candlestick to form before i go in. Notice that in one of Black's post, he waited for a good few hours too. Result is positive. Still, this is the noob way of mine. Lets hope i can come up with something that is not so time consuming~ =D
The techniques that i rely on are FIBOs Bollinger Band and EMAs. Mostly scalping on the EUR/USD 1.500 level. Short on FIBO resistance , Long FIBO support. Only on candles confirmation before i go in. As in after a long white candle, i will wait so patiently for it to retrace back to FIBO resistance before i short it. TP @ FIBO support. No news no nothing.
Thats all folks!!! Happy trading!!! May the gods watch over me and have mercy on my poor account!!! AH WOO AH WOO!!!
The Trend is your friend, your friend is a Trend. Follow a friend who is a Trend. Hand in hand, pips by pips.
Wednesday, October 14, 2009
Few cross-over towards the downside. Trend pattern downwards, it tapped my top of trendline to give a good sell signal. Instead of strolling down the trend, it ranged thru' the fibonacci, hit my S/L (2%) when NZD Retail Sales report was good. Should have (notice how many should-ve i used this post) sold before the annoucement although was at a losing trade, becuz the forecast was good. Well basically my Nzd/Usd didn't had a positive profit points @ all, 5 pips spread, Woah~ thinking twice before i pick-up another Kiwi in future, lesson learnt.
Next up, feeling good with the Koalas due to the week before. I too, short the pair. Gold price is reaching new HIGH, oh so high, so was Aud/Usd (in fact right now too). Looks pretty resisted at the top of my trendline and close to fibo, i think its time Aud/Usd might retrace. My S/L was lower than 2%, slightly above the nxt line of fibo. It ripped thru my S/L the nxt morning.
Tuesday was looking at Usd/Jpy pair. Looks to me like the Elliot Waves' forming.. coming towards the downslope. Short at the top of a candle, as usualy Stop/Loss @ 2%, before next line of resistance. 25 points trailing stop in place. ranging price throughout the day. Till this morning it began to continue trending downwards. I could see USD depreciation among major pair most of today. Reach home to see a +80pips, another classic. maintained my trailing S/L, till it finally hit. Pocket about +65 pips at the end of the trade.
About two hours after the above, i decided to take a bit of a Eur/Usd a few pips, with HIGH LOT. and i lost high LOT. and i tried even HIGHER LOT to make up what's lost, and i lost even HIGHER LOT! 3 weeks of consistent profit - lost in one afternoon.
Small retail players like us, especially new ones, should maintain small lot size. The difference? Of course winning and losing amount! U wanna win big? u think forex is a fast pace market, u CAN win BIG! i win BIG in one trade before, about 20%+ of my account in one trade. and that, spellls the start of my disastrous habit i couldn't kick which tore my account big time.
"You can swim a great amount of distance in the rapids (high volatility and liquid market), but without the fundamentals of swimming and water treading (price analysis, knowledge and MONEY MANAGEMENT), your course of journey (trading life) will just be swept (S/L GOT HIT) across." - Black
So please, Black, for the last time (i hope), control your LOT SIZE, and VENGEANCE MINDSET!
the reason i can profit consistently (even though small, but compounding effect is magic) becuz i had been controlling the lot size i enter in a trade. calculate the number of pips towards the price it might go against u, from there then u determine the lot size to enter, and make sure that the multiply of the two does not exceed 2% of your account. even a losing trade, gives u hope, becuz u got more allowance to let the price move against ur trade, juz like what happen to my Usd/Jpy this week, let it ride its actual course towards ur goal. but using mini lot in few hundred dollar account is suicide.
Take a deep breath, and life goes on.
"Don't let a losing trade knock your pride, if you never give up, there will be glory ahead for you to ride"
Sunday, October 11, 2009
it covers interesting and valuable subjects on forex. i was contemplating on subscribing to a 2-year on the magazine, but was still thinking of checking out for any other forex magazine first before plunging in. because SGD$11 is really a bit too high. last saturday, i went back to the press-stop and saw the new October issue (picture below).
they have redesign the cover with more 'IN' font, haha. this time i saw the price was covered by a piece of sticker read $10. i thought woa, this press is reducing the price so i bought it on the spot. i went up to times and saw the similar issue, and then the original was actually priced SGD$9.80 WTF! kena cheat TWO FUCKING MICRO LOTS! twenty cents isnt big impact to me, but as a trader, if u trade one micro lot, thats the amount of the spread cost U NOE??? im juz kidding lol anyway its the principle that matters argh. nvm. anyway back on the magazine content..
it covers topic such as, swing trading techniques, monthly reviews on currency pairs, importance of money management, economic calendars etc. contributed mostly by forex experts. all of them are very useful knowledge especially for new traders like us. i love to read on different forex experts opinions regards to some things, although a lot are commonly similar, like the money management stuff, but forex is a ever-learning business. we always come across things we are new to, right? u read money management a lot, but frankly speaking how closely do u follow it? sometimes these things are meant to drill into our heads.
i will still be following closely with upcoming issues before i would decide to subscribe to it tho. will keep it updated.
Thursday, October 8, 2009
the next night, the price was trending upwards so we longed, and same procedure we went to bed and wake up seeing the price hit my S/L again! as bottle said, SELL BECOME SUPPORT, BUY BECOME RESISTANCE. we felt fucking miserable on wednesday. it was at a point of time we felt so helpless and dont know wad to do. buy wrong sell wrong. so that day i decided we should open ourselves up to more currency pairs.. i have a full time forex trader friend, who gives updates on his trade and forex world thru twitter. i learned from him on wednesday the Reserve Bank of Australia has hike their rates to 3.25%, which is a good news for Aussie. i also do update myself daily on Bloomberg & Reuters currency section. i went back to look at eurusd as usual, and open up Aud/Usd. scalped on eurusd quickly, i know scalping is not an advisable method, but i dont do it aimlessly. most of the time i look out for indicators of reversal. in, take a few pips and out i go. i do that using higher lot (high based on the capital i am holding LOL) than usual.
Before me and bottle end our night, i was watching Aud/Usd closely, it has been wandering @ my fibo support level for some time, on top of that, the hike in Aussie interest definitely attract much traders into holding their currency. I asked bottle about longing the pairs with minimum lot size, becuz we were still unfamiliar with the pair. he was ok. i hesitated and went back to ask him if we should hv drop the idea, he say.. I HAVE ALREADY EXECUTED THE TRADE DAMMIT! ok, let's do it then i say. price looks good, we set our t/p and s/l and went to bed. i woke up in the morning to see +40 pips, definitely was good move. i was about to left home for office when i went back to my computer and decided to secure my profits by setting a trailing stop at 15 points, therefore extending my take-profit to another level, since profits are secured. i longed aud/usd the night before @ 0.8879, initial s/l @ 0.8850, initial t-p @ 0.8950, further extend to 0.9000. +121 pips closed. my highest pip trade since my LIVE trading, definitely motivating.
fundamental + technical combined. it is not always u got such opportunity, therefore u see those expert traders only trading a few times per month, and are so HIGHLY profitable! they only go in on opportunity, not like us! like humping girls in out in out in out and in out! we're trying not to overtrade. every trade every week gives us a new lesson to learn.
Most of articles u read on money management, would tell u about only risking 2% of your account and a 1:2 risk-to-reward ratio. i m highly agreeable to the first, on risking no more than 2% of ur account in any one trade. becuz of the draw down, and if u are in the situation where price is likely to move more than 2% meaning ur s/l, better don't go in, always wait. some of the night when i juz watch and wait for opportunity, and some times went to bed without any trades, can feel good, better than juz 'wanting to be in the trade' and bring losses to bed like i always did.
As for the risk-reward, i can only say apply it same as above, meaning if u do not see a reward opportunity higher than ur risk, do not enter. but this is harder to fulfill. alot of times i find myself ripping reward halfway before a retracement, or price would hv almost touches ur t/p and retrace to ur s/l. in another perspective, i believe in flexibility. but end of the day, still, discipline is needed. if u are highly discipline like the expert traders, then most likely u wouldn't find urself in a situation above like me.
We love the Koalas this week, although the lot earned was small, but we're trying our best to rip PIPS, definitely the 'IN' thing in the long run! Happy trading.
Ps: the profit we ripped thru the aud/usd trade went the most profitable when aud unemployment rate was annouced. The result was far better than forecasted. That was partly the caused of the spike in the morning (singapore time). Check out news annoucement @ forex factory - link at our forex knowledge portal!