"Take Risks: If you win, you will be happy; if you lose, you will be wise. Nothing ventured, nothing gained."
Showing posts with label Fundamental Analysis. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Fundamental Analysis. Show all posts

Friday, April 6, 2012

Non-Farm Payroll Trade


Aud/Usd - The only pair going straight down during the bearish USD news. I was watching it along with Eur/Usd, Gbp/Usd & Usd/Jpy. Yen had the sharpest rally I would say. I thought the aussie should be a little lag. But it was losing in Eur/Aud & Gbp/Aud as well. 

I waited for the momentum (as well as the spread price to drop) to weaken and went in. I wanted to ride, but I also need a target. So I closed out at Chikou Span resistance and that was it.. one more lucky escape!

+42 pips


Usd/Jpy - Very nice fall, fallen too quick to catch the move.

Have a Good Friday and enjoy the long weekend! Wish y'all an advance Happy Easter!



Black.

Friday, March 2, 2012

3 Months into 2012

3 months into 2012 already! Time really flies, we r nearing the predicted 12122012 end of the world. LOL. I wonder if that day really is the end of the world, how would the guy who just strike 10million dollars lottery feels, Prize Collection Date : 12/12/2012. Or that kid who slog 3years of his life n finally gets to graduate. Graduation day - 12/12/2012. Sucks for sure.

Anyway, these few months my account has been like a roller coaster ride, as usual. Up n down up n down n im still at square one. I wonder if its just me, i always felt that i will make it someday and becomes a full fledge trader! HAHA! Even when trades hit stop loss, i felt like i've learned something from it and as long as i doesnt repeat it, i will reach my goal sooner or later. But unfortunately, it seems rather abit late. =~( What if the day i really achieve my goal is the same day that guy strike his lottery n that kid graduating?? LOL

Some trades i did recently, quite interesting though, is on DOUBLE ZEROES as support and resistance. Scalping 10 to 15 pips at a time during not so violatile hours on smaller timeframes. Areas like 1.3400 and 1.3300. Glad i didnt trade during Bernake's speech. His is like the voice of the emperor. One word one cough or one fart and the whole market shooks with it. Pretty scary what one man can do eh? Its best to shut ur pc and sleep when these important figures are giving speech.

Best of luck to all of u out there!

Bottle
Be happy with what we have. Nothing feels better than being satisfied.

Saturday, February 4, 2012

Non-Farm Payroll - USD All Green

I was sitting by the side lines. But every movement means money, and still, greed got to me.

If only I maintained my very first short position in the Eur/Usd..



Nice come back for Gbp/Usd.. otherwise I burnt and knock my head again..



Scalping the NFP transactions... very easy to blow up account.


Have a nice weekend!

Black.

Friday, December 2, 2011

USD/CAD down but not out....




A cold chilly night, im bored... itchy.. urge came.. urge to click n trade. Never been able to totally cast this bad habit out. It has been alot better though.

So when shit happens, u can only hope that the damage can be minimized, better still... profit from it. But tonight isnt going to be a easy night.

The above printscreen image maybe the ugliest u have even seen, im sorry but im still very much a [accessories >> paint] user.

Time is 2000 local time, 2 datas pointing weakness in CAD... thats when i went in LONG on USD/CAD, entry level @ "1" . After entry, it has been hovering around that area...

Then came 2130 local time, green datas for USD, it confirms my believe that this pair with go higher... BUT!!!! Prices plunge down for dont know what fciasjcsax reason, and end that 5min session with a long shadow.. Sadly, my stop loss got triggered as a result. Thats for "2".

Went LONG again, on "3", targetting around "4" area.. TP hit, profitted 5pips at the end of the day.. Moral of the story? Market doesnt care about ur predictions or whatsoever, its merciless i guess??

But im happy to end green for the day after a scare at the start...

Bottle

Monday, November 7, 2011

Break-even Week for Trading

Got to blog at this hour because today is a public holiday in Singapore. Selamat Hari Raya Haji to our Muslim brothers! Its pretty sunny day and great that it is not rainy.

After all the battles with the market last week, I ended it break-even. Summary:

Usd/Jpy
Got a great trade during Japan BOJ intervention, rode along upside and exited swiftly. Besides the intervention, it became one of the most boring pair to trade the rest of the week.



Eur/Usd
Had a bad trade in Eur/Usd. Followed by an order off resistance, which bounces off nicely and caught a 56 pips.


Aud/Usd
Besides the RBA rate announcement last week, which they -0.25% of the aussie and I caught the downside, I had bad trading with the pair during Non-farm payroll. I only traded the aussie during NFP. Bad trading once again. Another good reason why I should walked away after placing my positions to enter. I sat down beforehand telling myself just to watch the order get hit else don't touch. Despite a very shallow movement after the announcement, I still entered. This discipline thingy seems like always a hundred miles away.


Poker
Been bad week. Need some serious thought and re-alignment. If it is time to walk away, walk away. 

Good luck people for the brand new week!

Black.

Tuesday, November 1, 2011

The Great Jap Intervention !

The Great Jap Intervention, yes and some not so great trade from myself. =~(

Anyway, first of all i would like to thank Black for his reminder on the above mentioned... all because of him.. i made a whooping 60pips. In the time period of walking from a bus stop to the nearest train station... Thats like 100++ metres... So ya thank you~~~~~

Ironically, this intervention thing also made me lose more than double of what i profitted... Blame it on my virginity of trading such event perhaps? Or more like because im greedy??

Well due to the fact that because im using mobile trading, i kept my size half of my usual. 60pips profit in matters of minutes... YAYyYYYyyYY POP CHAMPAGNE!!!

Then when im home... not sure why, i keep having the thought that the Jap Intervention will continue, so i went in again using my usual lot size (which is double of my initial profit). It straightaway plummet down right in my face!

Thats not the end.. i went in again at some FIBO level for EUR/JPY pair.. i have no idea why i did that.. its crazy i know.. the results? CRAZIER... i shall not go into detail for this trade. its humiliating~~~~~~ Im shy~~~~~~ Ashamed~~~~~~~

Yes i shouldnt be commiting this kinda mistakes... Imma write it down in small pieces of papers and stick it everywher to remind myself of this fateful day..


Stay Silly, Stay Thirsty
Bottle

Monday, October 31, 2011

Bank of Japan Intervention Trade & 4-Heads-Up Poker

Forex
Asian market open trade on Usd/Jpy upon Bank of Japan intervention.


Very swift 10 minute take-profit. The intervention was heavy, just look at the candle stick. Correct me if I'm wrong, Bank of Japan were buying the US dollars with Yen, so to make their Yen cheaper, so as to boost their export. It is no difference from China controlling Yuan (Renminbi) buying of treasury bills?

+49 pips

Poker
Was full ring cash gaming earlier, after I watched the chart in the US opening, but could not find a set-up. Table was tight. Half of them were only buying in short-stack, like 40bb? So they barely call pre-flop raises so I slowly blind steals. Short-stack players usually play a fold-shove style, not necessary through shoving pre-flop, but they raise pre-flop at such an amount that commit their stack even upon flop. So its a do-or-die when your in a hand against such, else if you can successfully check-raise their c-bet if they didn't hit.

Key hand occurs when one of this short stack re-raises 12 big blinds amount pre-flop after UTG min-raised, I shoved my stack with QQs. The min-raiser folded (phew, his stack was 100bb same as mine). Short stacker called and rolled up aces. Oh my fucki- and then flopped a Queen set before my swearing was done. Now I am at the other side of the course as compared to my last week bad beats.

Had a 4-man NLHE Heads-up Sit n' Go. First guy was good. I managed to discover his betting style when he had top pair, from calling a sure-lose river bet just to see his hole cards. Things were easier from there, and I also got lucky hitting sets about two hands. I finished the game earlier so I went over to observe the other table, watching the two possible opponents. Guy who won was shover, aggressive from what I observed.

I was surprise when the final table match started at how tight he was. I took the pots down for the first consecutive 12 hands. By then effective stack was about 800. He began to become "personal" about my raises. Meaning he shoved whenever I raises, and check/call whenever I call. I noticed in heads-up there are players who get emotional or tilt and their betting style began to have a big difference. And he began to exploit this shoving style, knowing I wouldn't risk giving him a chance to double-up.

Hand #14


BB: t690  34.50 BBs
Hero (BTN/SB): t2310  115.50 BBs

Pre Flop: (t30) Hero is BTN/SB with Q of spades A of hearts
Hero raises to t40, BB calls t20

Flop: (t80) 3 of clubs J of hearts T of spades (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets t40, BB calls t40

Turn: (t160) 7 of hearts (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets t40, BB raises to t610 all in, Hero folds

Final Pot: t240
BB wins t240




Hand #15

View hand 1498426
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

BTN/SB: t810 40.50 BBs
Hero (BB): t2190 109.50 BBs

Pre Flop: (t30) Hero is BB with 2 of hearts K of hearts
BTN/SB calls t10, Hero checks

Flop: (t40) 5 of clubs A of diamonds T of hearts (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN/SB checks

Turn: (t40) 6 of spades (2 players)
Hero bets t40, BTN/SB raises to t790 all in, Hero folds

Final Pot: t120
BTN/SB wins t120



Hand #16


View hand 1498427
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

BB: t870 43.50 BBs
Hero (BTN/SB): t2130 106.50 BBs

Pre Flop: (t30) Hero is BTN/SB with 5 of hearts 9 of spades
Hero calls t10, BB checks

Flop: (t40) 7 of spades A of diamonds 3 of hearts (2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks

Turn: (t40) J of diamonds (2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks

River: (t40) 5 of diamonds (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets t40, BB calls t40

Final Pot: t120
BB shows 7 of diamonds 6 of hearts (a pair of Sevens)
Hero shows 5 of hearts 9 of spades (a pair of Fives)
BB wins t120



Hand #17

BTN/SB: t930 46.50 BBs
Hero (BB): t2070 103.50 BBs

Pre Flop: (t30) Hero is BB with 8 of clubs A of diamonds
1 fold

Final Pot: t30
Hero mucks 8 of clubs A of diamonds
Hero wins t20
(Rake: t10)


Last Hand

BB: t920 46 BBs
Hero (BTN/SB): t2080 104 BBs

Pre Flop: (t30) Hero is BTN/SB with T of spades 4 of hearts
Hero raises to t40, BB raises to t120, Hero calls t80

Flop: (t240) J of diamonds J of hearts 5 of hearts (2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks

Turn: (t240) T of diamonds (2 players)
BB bets t800 all in, Hero calls t800

River: (t1840) J of spades (2 players - 1 is all in)

Final Pot: t1840
BB shows A of diamonds Q of diamonds (three of a kind, Jacks)
Hero shows T of spades 4 of hearts (a full house, Jacks full of Tens)
Hero wins t1840



He probably thought I wouldn't hit the paired flop and turn so he could either win a high card by river or make me fold immediately, since his previous shoves has been met with high fold equity from me. But wrong timing for him and right timing lucky turn for me. 

Good luck for the new month friends!

Black.

Thursday, October 27, 2011

Euro & Sterling Trades - Closed

Eur/Usd


After trying to hard to beat the resistance around 1.3950, it has finally broken up, now dancing its way towards next fibo 1.42. During the start of EU summit, Eur/Usd dropped towards 1.3800. Hopes dashed. I followed @kathylienfx twitter closely. It makes sense that EU can't afford not to have plans, but the market reactions was a wild one indeed.

Price recovered by Asian opening and was a relief, along with EU news that the leaders have worked late at night to come up with a comprehensive rescue plan for the region. Price does break up beautifully, just that my exit still doesn't makes sense. But thankful it has been a profit after last night madness.

+67 pips

Currently sell-limit placed at 1.42
===============================================

Gbp/Usd


Had another long on the cables. Another one I felt my exit point doesn't make sense either. It was way below my original take-profit basing on Daily. Now it is 40 pips higher than where I closed.

+66 pips

Risk sentiments are strong right now, what about next week?

Useful site I been using. Kind of a guide, but don't completely rely on it - ForexLive.

Black.
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