"Take Risks: If you win, you will be happy; if you lose, you will be wise. Nothing ventured, nothing gained."

Monday, November 30, 2009

30 Nov Short Scalping - Eur/Usd

Done with my trades tonight, was suppose to do a full report here but unfortunately, as per my previous post, FXDD is undergoing a transition and i am unable to view my transaction history. I think i will wait for their email on the monthly statement, and until their Report Viewer is ready before im able to publish the record.

Anyway wasn't that bad tonight, enter awhile before the start of New York session. Im scaling myself down to 5M & 15M chart. Dont want to confuse myself to bigger timeframe price action. Trying to stick to and practise on my intra-day trading style.

As usual, my first trade was always like a "testing water". Sometimes u enter a very very small lot, u tend to become more focus in the price movement. Thats what i read from an experienced trader. And when u get hold of that focus, u can 'feel' the market movement better. And i sacrificed my first trade for that, it hit my first trade s/l. And although i profit 4 out of 5 trades tonight, i didnt win big. +5 pips tonight. At least i find myself not revenging the loss trade, i picked them up 1 by 1, small piece by small piece.

Basically just watching price action, candlestick forming for confirmation. All my trades were very short while. I love my last trade. And im beginning to love Divergence Trading.

Check out the two pink line. A regular bearish divergence. What follows? Price dips. But never enter the trade solely on one signal. It came with Shooting Stars, Evening Doji Star, and top of my blue (down)trend line. I believe none of them should be served as the only signal for ur trade decision. But so far, they serve well, together.

Black November Report:
Due to school exams first half of the month, my number of trades this month are reduced by half. Lesson learned, i did not go into crazy revenge trade or big lot this month. Sadly, still making loss this month.

-44 pips
. But these 44 pips were much safer pips than the ones in my previous months (Money Management). This makes me feel better. Im trying to approach my trades in a day-to-day basis, and not let my yesterday's loss affect today's trade. I think we all should do that.


Friday, November 27, 2009

Short-term Trades on Eur/Usd

Couldn't resist and entered a trade today on the Asia session. I think i wasn't so used to be trading in the day becuz from the time i started demoing my trades and through the past months of my trade, i have been only trading New York session (cross London session), which is about 8pm - 12am Singapore time.

I have been trying to discipline myself not to trade any time of the day when i could, juz because im working a full time job. i think i need to filter down when i can trade (the right session), and the right mentality (as in not when there is a family gathering or rushing to go out in an hour), in another words, i need be wad i call 'specialize'. from my previous posts, i think u can see that i have been using much indicators, which could be confusing me instead, becuz basically i did put there without much attention paid to some. so i decided to remove most of the indicators and only focuses some that i frequently use. don't want an information overload. it makes u much harder to decide into a trade.

Didn't scalp well on the New York session, my first trade was too eager to go in. But manage to recoup on my second trade after giving myself much time to analyse. As Bottle always said, wait for the right price to go in. I have a full time trader friend who told me last week after a catching up with him, he says, "You should get out of that exciting phase. Forex trading should be boring and mechanical".

It struck right into me. I guess he was right, i didnt thought of this. I think i still need time for this. We are human being, we need time to change.

-20 pips today.

I need consistency..

Thursday, November 26, 2009

Hidden Bearish Divergence on Eur/Usd

Another divergence signal. they call it the Hidden Divergence short Eur/Usd where price is making a Lower High (LH) and oscillator is making a Higher High (HH), a hidden bearish divergence.

Check out my markings in Pink. Although price hit to 1.5042 (continuing as i wrote this, a little heart pain if only if only i was still in the trade, but we have to have target in a trade), i set my t-p only at 1.5055. a short scalp of +8 pips only. thats it for my night.


After (still going down)


Technique + Patience = Profit

Hi guys this is Bottle and i am here to share with you a good profittable trade that i hope you can benefit from it as well. Notice the title's equation, yes both technique and patience are key element to this trade of mine. As im typing now, the trade is still ongoing...

Ok some stuff about the image. Its USD/CHF pair. 4H timeframe. Yellow is my signal. Green my entry and Red my target.

It starts with the Yellow circle giving me a signal. First white small candle shows weakness and unable to penetrate my FIBO. After that, a bullish candle appears and so is my Stochastic crossover going up. This are good signals and proven techniques. But, where is my entry going to be? Thats when patience come in. FYI, the price was about 10 to 15 pips above my entry at first. It hovers there for quite sometime. So if you are watching the price, the urge to enter is very strong. Fortunately, i was patient enough to wait till it hit my Buy Limit that i set just above the 5EMA. I see 5EMA as a support before it moves up. My Stop/Loss below the Bollinger lower band and TP(Red) on the next FIBO resisitance. Trailing stop in place. So this is a 100% profit trade.

But what if i entered the trade prematurely? I would be suffering a float loss at start and not be able to reach my trailing stop of 25 so soon. Well, its true that sometimes it missed my Buy Limit by abit when i do this, but this way protects me. By entering with a good price, my Stop Loss can be further(Withstand retrace) and my Target Profit can be nearer (Hit Faster) you see.

Yup thats all folks!! Patience patience!! I can do it! You can do it! WE CAN DO IT!

Well guys, tell you a secret, i HAVE BEEN LOSING!!!! You know, my previous post tells of not setting Stop Loss and getting my own ass ripped... yes yes it still haunts me... Having nightmares of candlesticks sticking in my throat... DONT REPEAT THE MISTAKE THAT I COMMITED!!!! So even when i post of good profittable trades, im still losing.. perhaps like some of you new guys out there. Im just sharing what i think works. But still, i believe that some day i will be up in the clouds... pissing down and smile ~~

Once you learn to quit, it becomes a habit. <==== I WONT QUIT!! AH WOO AH WOO!!

Latest Broker Announcement - FXDD.com

Good day people, guess most of active traders under US based brokers have already heard this news some time back. Our current broker, FXDD is in the process of registering with the CFTC and joining the NFA, and they are in full compliance with all applicable NFA and CFTC regulations. And Sunday November 29th, 2009 is the implementation date for the above. Cut the long story short, here are the changes:

1. Major currencies leverage will be set at 100:1; all others will have leverage of 25:1. Affected currencies for 25:1 will be the USD/TRY and the USD/MXN. Gold and silver leverage will be set at 100:1.

2. Official FXDD account statements will show position offset on a FIFO (First in, First out) basis.

3. FXDD does not recognize hedging. Oppositing orders are offset immediately. Meaning you can no longer buy and sell the same currency pair at the same time on the same primary account.

4. No more daily MetaTrader statement via email. Official daily and monthly statements will be emailed directoy from back office.

And we're suppose to download the latest compliant version of Meta Trader before the implementation date. Oh dear, if you are under a US based broker, i'm sure majority of them are being regulated. Thats what happen whenever economic bubble burst happens, everything are being regulated again... causes restriction on innovation of financial instruments.. though regulation are for the benefit of preventing another recession..

Sadly, for FXDD users, we're given such a short notice period for changes. Meaning by the time market open next week, all ur positions have to be re-calculated based on the new leverage requirements. basically, we have only 2 1/2 days to get these done. what happens if u don't? if by the time market open next Monday and u're in a position too highly leveraged, u gonna get a MARGIN CALL! << note that this word SUCKS!

Well, anyway, small players like me ain't much affected, maybe yet. but pity those bigger players. maybe this isnt happening in foreign brokers areas like London, or Switzerland. Im sure one way or another, (switching broker or altering our money management with the new leverageetc) we all will get this thru' yea.


Tuesday, November 24, 2009

For those who uses META Trader 4

Hello everyone! I've got something to share about Meta Trader 4. I think its kinda important that anyone of us who uses this should know. If possible , do share and confirm my doubts if the below happens to you as well ya?

Meta Trader 4. Not sure if alot of you uses this platform. But one thing for sure is, Black and I do. I've got no problem with this platform, or rather i am so used to it now that i actually love this platform. All was good until yesterday. Take a look at the below chart before i carry on my shock discovery.

Ok as usual, some information on the above image. Its EUR/JPY pair. Red circle is where i did a long trade. White circle is my TP and the Yellow circle is where the highest was hit during that surge of price.

Ok my TP is 60pips away(White Circle). SL 40pips away(Just somewhere below the FIBO support). Custom set trailing stop 30pips. Notice that i had to custom set my trailing reason being the default given is only in multiple of 5s. 25 35 45 etc.

I left the trade to run and left for work. And when i got back, to my dismay, my SL was hit. Well, my trailing stop did not work!! As you can see from the point where i enter trade, a 50 pips was reached, so that means my trailing stop should kick in at 30pips profit and secure at least 1 to 20pips profit for me. But it didnt, unfortunately the trade went back and hit my SL. Well i thought i did a good job in eliminating the risk involve in this trade. Thats too bad eh?? =(

After which i checked with Black, he too remembered having the same problem when he was in AUD/USD trade. The trailing stop didnt kick in when it should. We were wondering what happened. I've used the default given trailing stops (25 35 45) though, it was good. It worked. So im wondering if its because of some errors or bug in the custom setting for trailing stops... Mayb next time i'll try in Demo.

Thats all folks! Do take note of this and share with us and everyone else if you too encounter this problem yea??


Monday, November 23, 2009

Aud/Usd - Swap Interest / Rollover Rate

Not too bad for a Swing Trade on Aud/Usd? with a 55 point trailing stop in place. on top of that, with the interest rate hike, who dares short the pair? Such a high rollover rates ain't it?

Fyi, the above trade was executed with 2 standard lot. dats why the rollover rate, and its gonna continue to increase for the next few days, provided the trade is still open. delicious? sadly, it was tested on a demo acct, so that i can show u the delicious taste of swap interest. IF ONLY I HAD USE LIVE !!! If only if only if only.. very typical slogan we use when trading..

Anyway, how does Swap works? it is the difference between the overnight interest between the two currencies. Difference? Yes, if u're in the position of the currency that has higher interest rate between the pair, u earn the swap.. and the amount is the difference between the two interest rate.

Take this example. If you have been reading the news past month, u would've know RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia) has hike their rate to 3.25%, and then to 3.5% currently. And as u can see, the Fed has been lying low on the USD rate that is close to zero, probably abt 0.25%. i can't go thru the exact mathematical calculation with u becuz i know u're not got read them.

im juz kidding, ok i admit i do not know the exact way to calculate it at the moment. i wish i know i would've share it here with u guys. therefore, based on above example, i longed Aud/Usd becuz im buying Aussie (and selling Dollar), thats why it earns me the interest in carrying overnight. on the other way round, if you were to have short this pair, needless to say, negative swap will be charged.

Different brokers have different rollover rates. And the rate changes daily. Hope this serves part of ur decision in trading. but i dont think u need to worry about this if ur an scalper or an intra-day trader cuz u would be unaffected.


The Forex Journal: November 2009

Hello, followers of the Black Bottle, its the time of the month again~ no no not menstruation but its the november issue of the Forex Journal. i had better experience in buying this issue becuz u noe wad? if u had read my previous post on this, i was cheated TWO MICRO LOT! they had since slashed price from SGD$11 (quite exp to me consider the thickness of the magazine) to SGD$9.80 which i find it fairly reasonable. to top it off, purchasing it thru Times Bookstore @ Plaza Singapura, as a Times Member, i still enjoy a 5% discount which means to say i bought it at SGD$9.30.

Why would i need to subscribe monthly issue which can save me less dan 10 dollars a year? probably the time spent on looking for the magazine tho. i was expecting them to slightly reduce the subscription price since their monthly issue has already been reduced, but nope.

Anyway a little on the content on the issue, as u can see the cover page look very much like the previous issue. in fact, i almost thought they had only changed the colour of the mag cover! but not really, i guessed they have returned the previous glasses to retired trader Bob and had borrowed Uncle Jeff's much rectangular glasses for this issue. and probably flipped over the newspaper in the background. it is so "uncle" leh... the cover. even by putting cartoon currency symbol as magazine cover could have been better off than an old man's desk, ain't it?

Anyway, part of the reason that i bought this issue was still the content on trading techniques, monthly report on datas. it is quite up to date. and.. Kathy Lien's one of the new contributor for the issue! she shared the very first article on the review on the greenback, US dollars. Follow by Swing trading techniques and trading by PRICE ACTION! there's aso an article that talks about money management, the chinese yuan and monthly market outlook. i havent' finish reading though cuz i only bought it yesterday.

Talking about money management, i remember the October issue that i read there was something wrong about it. its article was about Tom (or was it John?) who lost his entire capital account in two weeks. there was minor error becuz it mentioned micro lot as $1, instead of 10cents. nothing major tho, juz might mislead new traders along the way.

I personally took about 2 months to understand why is a standard lot $10 per pip, mini lot $1 per pip, and $0.10 per pip for micro lot. i went thru babypips school again and again and again till i drill the thing into my mind. u need to do some calculation to understand, which is something that i suck at.

U can find the magazine in most presses. take some time off during non-trading periods and enjoy!!


Sunday, November 22, 2009

Forex : Currensee.com

While maintaining our Facebook page, i often take notice of the ads on the right handside of the page. i have been seeing a site Currensee.com. I did ignore it for few weeks until i saw something in the description that goes 'traders social networking..' curious, i went to sign up and take a look in hope of knowing more trader friends.

indeed, it is something like a Fx Trader's facebook. you sign up with an email, you upload your picture and you get to meet people. there are various features which i have yet to explore fully. *note* you have to have a LIVE trading account to complete the sign up. they have a 'read-only' software which track your trades. and then in ur dashboard, u can see the percentage of currensee traders who long or short a particular currency pairs.

by signing up or introducing ur friends etc, u get to earn "bucks" in their programme, where u can shop in their "market" and purchase training video, articles etc. that expires in one year time if i remembered correctly.

there are features where u can upload ur strategy and they will track ur progress. by teaming up with ur trader friends or newly made trader frens, u can track each other's progress. needless to say, there's discussion column much like a live chat or a forum.

i am only a day old on this network and still exploring, hopefully it would be of some help, making new friends from this very interesting features provided by the social networking site. and its global!


Wednesday, November 18, 2009

Breakout Trade on US Building Permits, Core CPI m/m - Eur/Usd 18th Nov

Hello, guys tonight im-a share a short one. Im doing a Breakout-Trade system which i have been testing whenever I encounter the chance. Ok, here is how it goes, taking example from the trade i was in an hour ago.

Key Entering Criteria:
- Enter at the moment before a major announcement, say US announcement for this case, a minute or two
- Check Forecast on announcement to have a bias on whether to long or short.
- S/L MUST be placed, i usually put about 10 - 15pips away, in case of "jerk" movement right at the time of announcement
- Place it at last candle tip / Parabolic SAR / Bollinger Band
- Still researching on more entering criteria.

Ok, take a look below.

Price break-down +21 within ten minutes after announcement. One of the thing i couldnt get it was, there were two announcement, and one was Red and the other was Green, which means to say one was GOOD and another was BAD for the USD.. which you gonna bias? It went smoothly down until it met my Fibo 38.2% level when there was an indication of reversal check out the purple candle next.

Exit Criteria:
- Manual take-profit @ 15-30 pips (this creates a reward-to-risk ratio of 2:1 based on ur s/l)
- Manual trailing stop once profit approaching profit; that is if u wish to have ur profit run, but based on my encounters, there are always retracements on breakout.
- Exit if price hesitate too long, cuz there aint no breakout no more. why? check out what happen after i came out of shower while leaving my position on..

Kaput! S/L hit. Therefore, doing this technique of breakout trading has to be real FAST. u gotta be like what they say, a sniper. Saw opportunity enter fast, take profit, exit fast. I am still further testing this system becuz i believe it serves a good reward-to-risk ratio. Well, of cuz u need to anticipate major announcement before it happens. havent tried any other currencies though. check out forexfactory.com link on the right. u gotta know what kind of announcement is happening before u decide to enter a position.

Thats it for the night folks.


The Importance Of Stop Loss

We always talk about the best technique to use when it comes to Forex Trading, be it divergence, Crossovers or triangles etc etc. This is always what we thought to determine the outcome of our trade's success. How we can beautifully execute these moves, the timing in which these techniques are performed. Yes at least these are what i thought. Until now...

I had several bad experience with Stop Loss. Ever experience bad trades with the "touch and go" of your Stop Loss? Meaning the trade go against you at first, touching your Stop Loss and returning back on course towards your profit target?? Yes, thats the bad experience that i have with Stop Loss. So one day, i decided to not use it despite the importance of it (according to many books and pro traders).

So, i had several good trades, reaping 50 and 50 pips at a time. I got a streak of 5 to 6 trades profit. Feels good. I am on the way to hitting a 2 weeks continous profit. Account almost doubling. Then, one of my action destroy everything. You can say that maybe i am being over confident in myself. That evening i went in one of the highly violatile pairs, GBP/USD. I went in, and it starts to go against me. But somehow i felt confident that i am right in that trade(Due to the high hit percentage of all my previous trades). So i decided to do a average up or down or left or right, u know? To maximise my profit. After which, price starts to consolidate. I should have stop and withdraw from that trade since things are not going as planned. Yes u r right, i chose not to come out due to the floating lost. Worst, i chose to go work and leave it running WITHOUT setting my Stop Loss. I was telling myself, " No problem man, my TP will be hit somehow, if i set SL, there will be a chance that it will hit my SL and proceed to my TP"

Next thing when i come back and saw my trade, it shows -195 and -175. In terms of pips. O M G!!! Its disastrous, at that point of time i am totally clueless of what i should do. So i close them at around -190 and -170. It totally wipe out my hard work for that 2 weeks. I did a averaging down to maximise my profit! But who knows?? It helps to maximise my lost instead!!! WTF??? All my profits are gone and even eat into my capital for that month. I suffered a lost. A major one. Morale plunge into darkness.
HO HO HO!!! Everything is going so well until this. I learned the lesson a hard way.

What i've learned? Well, its obvious, the importance of Stop Loss yea? Nevermind that it got hit, what of importance is you win it back and dont let your losing trade ride even more. I had 5 to 6 trade profit streak. So whats the big deal of having 1 lost? Your hit percentage aint important at all. Dont worry if your 100% record becomes 90%. What important is, your capital. Your $$$!!
Last but not least, your confidence in trading. Its important that we have confidence, so that we are comfortable in entering trades, so that we wont enter trades too late, so that we wont whine and curse and swear when it actually turn out right if we were to follow our signals and indicators and trade. These are the good and right ways to utilize our confidence. But never be over confident. It makes you unwilling to accept lost. It makes you not wanting to accept lost and shift your SL away, soon a -50 becomes a -70 or even -100. Its disastrous. Keep your confidence in check. Mine went astray for that 1 or 2 days and there goes my hard work for 2 weeks.

Success is not final, failure is not fatal. It is the courage to continue that counts.

Thursday, November 12, 2009

Regular Bearish Divergence on Eur/Usd

I have always wanted to get a chance to write on this ever since I read Divergence Trading from Keong Hee's Book (found on the recommended book links on the right) and Babypips.com. It ain't a huge reap last night, but I'm glad to turns out fine. This signal doesn't appear often, and although I have always taken note of such divergence but it rarely happens, at least to me.

After my darn exam (first paper) last night, came home to see Eur/Usd pushing up to 1.5030+ level. Seems resistance are pretty strong at whenever they push thru' the price of 1.5000. Ever watch the movie Troy? Its like the Greeks who are pushing hard through the frontline of the Troy army, but are always being strongly resisted by the archers of Troy. Who knows what will happen next? Maybe Euro will make a wooden horse and Usd will keep it and then there goes their resistance at 1.5000.

Check out the Blue trend line I drawn between the two vertical Red line. Top of the price candle and top of Stochastic Oscillator. Price is make making a Higher High (HH), and the oscillator is making a Lower High (LH), this is a signal of a regular bearish divergence. It indicate the Bulls are exhausted, warning of a possible trend change in direction. Well, thanks to babypips's Divergence Trading Cheat Sheet I printed out for reference.

Take profit off 33 pips at 1.5000, in case of price rebound at triple zeros level as I went to bed with the trades open. Hope some of these strategies made from me and Bottle's trades serve you at times, we are opened to discussion if there is anything that needs improvements / add-ons. =)


Intra-Day Scalping @ EUR/USD "Psychology" Resistant Level PART 2

Yes, just like my title, here we are back with PART 2 of my last topic. I ought to change the word "Scalping" though. Simply because the amount pips profit from this trade is too much to be called Scalping i guess. Its a put and go to sleep kind. I love it~~ A continue from PART 1!

A little info for the image above. RED circle is my first entry. BLUE is my second entry and GREEN is my TP. The above pair is EUR/USD. 1H timeframe.

Ok like i said yesterday regarding the "Psychology" level of 1.5 + triple zero(000) as a very good resistant price. Even when i say that ytd, i've got doubts for my own words as well... So in order prove that my own theory really means something, i decided to put a Sell Limit @ 1.5008. THATS COMPLACENT! That explains the first RED circle, my indicator points otherwise but i choose to Sell Limit and went in trade despite of that. I even reminded to double confirm with indicators before going in during my previous post... Well i wasnt around to monitor on that. Was sleeping beside my workstation like a fucking pig when the price shoot up. See that big juicy even longer black candle(Black's top 5 favourite candlestick)? Yea luckily it didnt went up too far and hit my SL. I did a averaging down or up or left or right.. whatever u call that. Its purpose is for maximizing ur profit. Because i witness some price undecisiveness around there. That explains the second BLUE circle. After which is all about waiting patiently. TP is set about 10pips above my fibonacci level. Was afraid that it may not hit fibo reason being the Bollinger Lower Band happens to be around there as well. I thought it would be a good support (Bollinger + Fibo). And that is my GREEN circle.

Next morning i check my trade. TP hit and i am so happy. Well fyi Black was in the trade that night too. So we both profitted from this nice bounce. A good 50 - 60 pips is possible from this bounce. But now that this 1.5000 has been poke thru, pierce thru so many times... Its not longer tight anymore.. Ok i sounded wrong, but if u get what i mean.. it looks like it may not be that reliable anymore yea?? Well we can wait and see, we've got quite enough pips from it. Guess i'll enter again only if my indicator really support my claim this time round...

Thats all folks!!!! Happy Trading!!!

I've run out of quotes for the day...

Wednesday, November 11, 2009

Intra-Day Scalping @ EUR/USD "Psychology" Resistant Level

Hello guys!! Bottle here. Wants to share something thats quite effective and useful with all of u guys out there who have been following up this blog =D

For some info on the above image. Its EUR/USD pair in 1H time frame. Between 10th to 11th Nov 2009.

Ok, like the title says, scalping at a "Psychology" resistant level of 1.5000. As we have previously saw in Black's post regarding the Psychology effects of double zeroes, the above scenario is one such example. To add weight to the above theory, 1.5000 is considered a very high price i suppose?

Well yes it still involve some risk by just putting a Sell Limit @ 1.5000. To minimize the risk, i use my indicators to help me double confirm if indeed, that a bounce from 1.5 is coming. Like my Stochastic. EMAs.

From the image we can see some fat juicy(Black's favourite) white candlestick. Realize that each bounce can reach a minimum of 30pips and maximum of 80 pips? Thats alot to achieve in an hour or so. Ytd night i reaped 40pips from it. Short @ 1.5000 and TP @ 1.4960.
But do take note of the Fundamental side of this. I tried doing it in "No news" timing so what effects they can bring is not known yet.*(at least to me) And also do have the patience to wait for it to retrace up, sometimes it happen to go above 1.5000 yea? This way ur risk can be lowered and profit maximised yea??

Bottle can do it! U CAN DO IT! Ok thats all folks hope it helps!

Being defeated is often a temporary condition. Giving up is what makes it permanent.

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Sunday, November 8, 2009

Article on Realife Lessons Learned From Trading Forex

Good Sunday morning, could be bright and shines up your day now, but who noes the weather might rain in your afternoon? Looking it in another perspective, without the rain that falls from the cumulonimbus clouds, when can we see the sunshine? Just like Forex Trading, you may have a winning trades to end your day, you may have losing trades the next. Losing is part and parcel of the trading journey, DON'T REVENGE! Let your money management guide you to a profitable journey. Lessons are learned to mould you into an experienced and skillful trader.

As the saying goes, "A smooth sail never trains a skillful mariner."

We all learn throughout our journey, especially early period when our learning curve is the steepest, just like right now, me and Bottle. I'm fortunate enough to have a close partner in my trading journey, and we're definitely looking forward to our days, and years ahead in this. We're serious. And we enjoy making new trader friends and learning from one another.

In this post, I'm gonna share with you an article from a Forex Trader, and his early days. The author is Greg Sidelnikov. I wish I could write like him someday. But im sure the following article will catch the attention of new traders (MUST READ!) and even the old birds. I can really relate to alot of thoughts in words he wrote. Some right into my heart~ Sobz~, which ones? I quote the lines for u: "Like many other excited traders I started to trade without knowing much about this market. I would draw trend lines and think I was in business." <<-- So true ain't it?

For full article, here's the link:

Please enjoy..

The smart man learns from his mistakes, the wise man learns from the mistakes of others.

Saturday, November 7, 2009

Last Trade of the Week 6/11/2009!

Hellooo dooody boooby guys!! Last trade for this week was a good one! Managed to close one 50pips trade worth for the night. Months of continous chart and candle looking + studying is taking it effect now~!~!~!~!


Bottle, "OKAY!!!!"
PS - The EMA lines are edited to be FAT and JUICY for your easy reference. My actual ones are slim and skinny. We are NICE people! =D

Ok some things to note before i go. The technique used in the above image is 5EMA crossing under 20 EMA in a 4H chart. Time of trade is around 10pm to 12am. Traded pairs EUR/JPY.

Note that RED line is 5 EMA while BLUE line is 20EMA. The red circle is the area of analysis. And the small blue circle is my point/price of entry.

It all started with those small candles consolidation as we can see right before my red circle. Then a long white candle came out. It signals break down. It also triggered what i've been waiting for. Crossunder of the EMAs. With the confirmation of my Stochastic ( both pointing down). I PATIENTLY waited for the candle to retrace back to the blue circled area. Exactly @ the Fibonacci resistance before go Short on the trade. Notice that it went even higher eh? Well mayb im not good enough or wat, i cant predict the exact level it will retrace to eh~ But at least i waited for a retrace of 10+ pips before i go in. Minimised my risk (farther SL) and maximised my profits!

Some thoughts to share - Reason i came out earlier is because market is closing @ 5am into the weekends. Usually i will TP near the support of the Fibonacci. And also due to me setting a target of 50pips for today. So i keep to my words. Just incase things happen eh... And true enough as u can see from the chart. If i were to be a little bit more greedy and set lower and goes to sleep. It would have retraced. Main objective is to go enjoy my weekends with ease. And not thinking of my Fx =D I have been losing countless hours of sleep during the weekdays due to Fx!! Running trades and stuff u know?

Last but not least. This Cross under technique was used in 4H chart reason being 4H chart filters out "noise". It tends to be more accurate. But at the expense of getting into the trend later u see. Give and take ya? Most impt thing? PROFIT!! So patience guys patience!!

I can trade this signal so can u!!!

Nothing great in this world has ever been accomplished without passion.

Friday, November 6, 2009

Aud/Usd - US Non-Farm Payroll

Hello everyone, I know i'm supposed to be studying for exams.. but then, tonight is the first friday of the month... what? yes, US NFP aka Non-Farm Payroll annoucement will be out this day of the month. currently one of the most important USD data dat affect the price changes drastically.. (refer to my screenshot below). I managed to hold back trading past few days for studying, but NFP is so different man, the feeling is like all ur frens went to clubbing and u're alone at home, that kinda of feeling u noe? especially on a friday night or ur favourite retro night. ok anyway juz a short one here..

I was watching most of the currency pairs, especially Eur/Usd & Aud/Usd. After the annoucement, or should i say, right at the spot of the annoucement, as close as 9.30pm (singapore time), the candle stick appear in the chart like how david copperfield suddenly stand in the middle of the audience the lastime he came here for a performance.

just a minute b4 the annoucement, i was still contemplating to long or short. the forecast on NFP was good, but i was kinda draw-back when the ADP NFP Change on wednesday was below forecast. i short close to day high on Aud/Usd, setting S/L @ 5 pips above day high, which was about 20 pips away, much less than 2% MM. price will breakout either way, so no point setting it far away if it break-up u juz gonna lose more, thats how i felt. My take-profit was set on the next fibonacci. well, didnt get to ride the whole stick, but some encouragement during my study period, opps.. so guilty. anyway here is the report:

(Courtesy of ForexFactory.com)
USD Non-Farm Payroll Change: -190K (Actual) -173K (Forecast) -263K (Previous)
USD Unemployment Rate: 10.2% (Actual) 9.9% (Forecast) 9.8& (Previous)

Both Reds. and you wonder why majors (except for Usd/Jpy) spike towards the dollar? Beats me.

i love riding on retracement but i think i shall call it a day. have fun everybody, i need to go back to my books, wish me luck on my exams.. i wish u luck on ur trades :)


Wednesday, November 4, 2009

Quitting a $10000/mth job to trade FOREX??

Hello! Its me Bottle again. Well Black is busy studying for his upcoming exams you see, so its left to me to keep you guys update... and entertained if possible =)
O yea the image above is a "Fortune Cat" I have one of those near my workstation. Hope it brings luck! Feng Shui u know?? Notice that this cat is not smiling aye? Lost in trading? Floating loss? I wonder why...

Well like my title above. Quitting high like heavens salary jobs and switching over to trading Forex. Quite often we see this in newspaper yea? You know, they usually comes together with Forex seminars/talks or some smart software programmer trying to sell you their version of the "Holy Grail"??

Then we will start telling ourselves, "O Issit even possible?? Dont be an asshole and cheat average joe like us into ur programs man~~!! SCREW U"

1st, will you forsake your highly paid stable job for trading Forex? Which to many people, a much higher risk choice?

2nd, to quit your 10k/mth job for trading Forex have to mean that by doing so, it brings in more income yea? But 10k/mth dude!!

OKAY! Let Bottle myself and on behalf of Black (We usually think alike you see?) tell you our "Thoughts in words" for the day. May new or going to be or wannabe or almost failing who wants to give up already Forex traders see this and hope it clears your doubt.

For point number 1, actually if i were to have 10k/mth salary, i would not have give a damn about Forex anyway. hahahahahaha! So its nothing much to talk about yea? But come to think of it, lets face it guys! We all know that at some point of time, no job or position is totally safe from or immune to RETRENCHMENT. Unless you are the boss of cause. If you are one who think far and wide, alternatives will starts to flush into your brain when the thought of retrencement comes in.

Ok lets get to the interesting part, the Maths part. I like~~ In order to achieve same financial support from your previous job of 10k/mth salary, most likely we wont give in to anything lesser aye? How about $10001/mth? Increment of $1. I can tell you now that its possible!! From the pen and paper i was holding earlier calculating with my calculator... yes its possible.

I will keep it short and sweet so you will have the time to go think about it. Effective working days a month is 20days. All the weekdays only, if you work weekends too... im sorry man.. But u can start learning Forex trading now =) 10000/20days = $500 per day. By trading a standard lot, each day you will need to hit 50pips profit at least. Lesser if higher lot. And from what i see in Forex charts of different pairs, reaping 50pips/daily is not impossible. Well we can always split you see? 25pips at a time? 2 times a day? Using the time in your office from 8 to 5 and work in the comfort of your home instead? Spend more time with family? Spot 2 opportunities for 25pips at a time?? I dont think its really very difficult if we are experienced and "pro" enough. And that $1 i talk about? Just get a 26pips profit from one of your trades man. That makes $10010 my friend! $9 more!!!

Well the above does sounds easy. I myself is far from that level yet though. HAHA! But what im trying to point out is, with proper trading discipline, system and money management. Its really possible. Like i say we have to be seasoned/experienced enough to perform the above mentioned stunt. Thats our ultimate goal. But please dont jump into conclusion that trading Forex is easy money! This thinking will rip a big fucking hole in your pocket! It has to be done systematically. Trust me... Lets do it slow and steady hand in hand yea??

The pessismist finds difficulty in every opportunity; the optimist finds opportunity in every difficulty

Monday, November 2, 2009

Transaction History / Progress Since Start

Hi this is Bottle, i hereby present you the first post of the month~~~.

As we all know (Well some of you may not know if you missed out the very first few posts), the purpose of this site is to actually share the trading live of 2 noob traders (Black and I). We promised to keep updating all our happenings during this trading journey. Be it frustration of losing or happiness of profitting or even the agony of floating loss. Hoping to share all the UPs and DOWNs with all other new traders out there who share the same sentiments. So we decided to start doing a monthly report on our transaction history and progress.
Ok lets get it started~~

Alright the above shows my transaction from start of my live account during AUGUST. Wasnt doing well at all from start. Until you see that cliff down there? I adopted a "One trade win all my lost back" mentality. So i traded with bigger lot. But end up going the other way. Suicide. And ya that is also the month where almost every fucking trade i went into goes against me! Really frustrating. You know, long price becomes resistance, short price becomes support this kinda thing. Screwed.

This is my SEPTEMBER transaction history. As you see, still, i am plunging to my death. Further and further away from my capital. And STILL!!! Every trade is going against my way. Same old story as the above, long price becomes resistance short price becomes support bla bla bla. Fuck it. Disastrous. My mum will sure kill me for throwing away my $$ just like that. So its best to keep it from her =)
O ya this month's transaction history looks like a shoreline depths eh? Its smoothing out reason being i trade with much smaller lots. So all the lost wont seem so devastating. Its quite important to keep to a smaller lot for smaller account and new traders like myself.

Last but not least, the month for OCTOBER. Finally i see some progress. Some light. Sticking to whatever rules and advise from pro traders. I SEE PROGRESS!! But... its really little compare to what i've lost in the previous months. This is really the progress that we need to keep ourself going. Keep ourself motivated. Is this a sign of a trend reversal? Well we shall see, there is still a long way to go. Lets start climbing slowly back to gaining back capital first.

Thats all folks!!

A Journey of a thousand miles starts with a single step

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