Wednesday, March 31, 2010
Duration: 3 minutes.
Technical: Moving average, fibonacci.
Strategy: Tapped and closed well below 100 SMA, fibonacci as stop-loss.
To some, it might appear to be some superficial reasons to take my kind of trade base on my strategy, but thats what's been making me a little bit money. But i guess using this method, the most important thing is to know when u wan to go in, and when u wan to go out. Often times, i tell myself to get out by 5 pips but greed caught me and my profit end up ticking off instead. This can be corrected easily, unlike if u were to close a floating loss - not able to accept it some times still means u have to accept, at a greater loss.
Tuesday, March 30, 2010
Monday, March 29, 2010
First (long) position entry on Aud/Usd. Reason for this pair? Aussie seems to be holding on the strongest against the dollar since the start of the day, forming nice uptrend.
Price went up to 12 pips and made a rebound (double top). During that point when i was floating profit of between +10 to +12, i was hesitating on closing the position. i thought price would break a new day high, but then again, taking a look at the bigger picture, into the Daily timeframe, today this pair has already made 125 pips day-range. Still stretching higher?
Finally after attempting the third time, price made a new day-high and i rode some allowance of it and close position. Phew, i was in floating loss before this happens.
I missed that last two bull candle, i was waiting for the price when nature calls. i wanted to enter a long for retracement but i dont wan to shit my pants for the sake of it. came back and the bull candles has already formed. i missed it! down along with my flush!
Longed after another retracement and scalped some scrap before price continue to range.
Back to my personal review of this book ever since i first bought it. First of all, two words to summarise the main point of this book: "implicit learning"
Earlier part of this book, it is broken down into explaining how does our brain work, whether in trading or learning anything else. To simplify, our left brain (the rational one, who can't conclude without giving a logical explanation) "learns" and "recognises" pattern as we gather knowledge, while the right brain (the creative one, who doesn't know why he knows) "draws" these learned pattern (instantly) from the back of our mind, i think they call it the subsconscious mind not necessarily with a logical explanation.. thats why its subtitle: How to use Right Brain Instinct & Left Brain Smarts to become a Master Trader.
In his examples of trading (mainly on stocks), Faith emphasises the importance of swing trading, a more suitable strategy when combining the power of both the left and the right brain. Something about this book reminds me of another book I read last year, that is Blink by Malcolm Gladwell. We might think that we can use out gut feeling in things right away by getting just the "feel" of it. But hell no, Faith tells you that only by having enough practice (and a great deal of it), by "training" your left brain into recognising patterns and systems, then are you able to use your gut feel effectively. Malcolm wrote the same concept in his book. Like an instant recognition or an answer subconsciously, without consciously able to define why you know it. Unless you studied the subject on psychology, I'm sure it gets more or less confusing, but thats implicit learning, I supposed.
Curtis explains a lot about the importance of applying trading using both sides of the brain. A lot of technical terms about intuition and psychological aspect earlier in the book, which makes me a little sleepy with those technical tones.
The author also shared a current book he is working on - Forex trading. Overall, Trading from Your Gut is a great book with many insights of learning and psychological knowledge on trading. Looking forward to his next book.
Saturday, March 27, 2010
Session: New York.
Strategy: Enter on pullback of rising trend. Euro rally for today.
Took the first position and price wasn't really going much in my favour. and then it go against me until it hit a certain resistance point and i was prepare to go in a second position averaging losses (no more than 2 i told myself). out of the blue, price freezes and i was disconnected and re-connect. Price has already pass-by my entry. Planned to close my position at b/e later when my positions are not going anywhere, price freeze again and i was down -21, -13. For once, i wished I was somewhere else in my country with LW, DT, & Solfest feeding Jules cat instead. Sounds crappy. Anyway, I did moved my s/l once (damned habit), and for the sake of punishment i supposed, price hit my adjusted s/l and went all the way up.
I need some serious re-evaluation on my trading setup, my seriously RISKY:reward ratio, and when it's time to sleep, sleep - instead of trading when I planned not to!! << always end up saying this.
Tuesday, March 23, 2010
Signed up the life-time demo account, call FXGame. I'm still in the process of exploring the platform. I don't even know how to see the spread difference as i'm too used to using Metra Trader 4 platform.
I even tested it using my mobile to trade, it is very simple, unless u're using a very good web-based mobile phone, otherwise I wouldn't recommend to trade with it. Or else simply use it to close a trade when u're outside, or when ur internet connection is down at home. Play safe, unstable internet connection for scalpers is hell.
No hurry, lotsa time to explore. Looking to fund a live acct this mid-year, if i like it.
Monday, March 22, 2010
Earlier this month, my equity had dipped to a point lower than ever (about draw-down of about 10%), but breaking even and the journey back up is fulfilling. You bear in mind what not to do that causes the draw-downs, and so to avoid it, while in the process, discover new ways of making back these money.
Duration: 9 minutes.
Strategy: Price went up approaching London opening second hour. Sold on retracement after candle closes within 38.2% fibo. A very short scalp, @ higher position sizing (x3).
Just a short scalp to end my day.
Friday, March 19, 2010
Without understanding the key fundamentals, i simply jump into trades when price is breaking a single direction or a trend forming, realising it was only a false breakout.
I turned to the junction where usually the bus turns in, there was indeed a bus coming, but when the green light came, the bus turned the opposite direction and went away.
Such a common false signal we face in our everyday trading life, falling victim by jumping in mindlessly, at least for me.
Given that if this was trading, had i really made a bad move? Here is what happen next, while much of the crowds moving away by going back to their original positions in disappointment, i remained at where i was. Following right behind the fake (real) bus, it was our desired bus turning in. I was in much better position.
Trade may go against you right after you entered, but generally the overall trend might still be of your favour, so stick to your system.
I have no conclusion. Sometimes i get caught in false signal, sometimes it can be simply noise. then again. who knows.
Duration: 2 hours.
Strategy: Day-low. Long on (or rather for) retracement. No of average-ins.
As usual, my first position never went more than +2 most of the time. Taking higher size lately. It was hanging at the 0.0 fibo and i was waiting for a breakout of a new day low. finally, i decided to give up and closed my last position at profit, juz merely four seconds later price breakout into another new low. missed ten pips just like that.
i could have just stayed there for a few seconds more man. i can do that in the bus stop but i can't do that in the chart. when can i ever let my profit run?? price is still moving down.
Thursday, March 18, 2010
I also do not find myself squeezing every little bit of time to sit infront of the chart like i used to. Going in to the market can mean either u win, or u lose. So i gradually prefer to go in at best state of mind and more luxury of time so that i had nothing else to blame if things goes awry.
Well, so far we're mid month through. I started off badly from the NFP night, and the night following it, and i was down almost -10% of my equity. Slowly fighting my way back. I hope to at least break an even by the time i do my March Review.
Happy trading and best of luck.
Wednesday, March 17, 2010
Session: London, New York crossover.
Duration: 1 hour 30 minutes.
Strategy: Sold on downtrend after slight retracement. S/L placed at 50% fibo, no T/P set. Monitoring the price closely for manual cashing in.
Well, no more bear candle right after i short, sometimes price can so cruel. I did two average-in losers that picked up +5 each.
After which, price continue to make its way down to a day-low, that serves the fundamental rule of fibonacci retracement level imperfectly, in my favour.
The reason i've found out about this book was through Simon Super Trader's Book Review. He has a nice and sweet review there. There is one thing i agree with Simon, this book is catchy. It is the way Donald Trump presented it in his book. This book is thick but i found myself finishing it faster than i read any other books.
The only thing i might not follow in his book is the "Prenuptial Agreement" with your spouse. Well, obviously i do not have any big assets to draw a line with if things go out of way. I have to agree with him that women are fiercer than any business enemies u have after breakup, look at Tiger Woods, Jack Neo etc. happening in the news recently. But asking them to sign such an agreement before a lovely marriage is something i don't think i will see myself do.
I will still read it again when i have finish Reminiscence of a Stock Operator and Fooled By Randomness. Book review on Trading from your Gut will be up next.
Tuesday, March 16, 2010
Technical: Stochastic Oscillator.
Strategy: Day low, seller momentum drops. Aiming for slight retracement. S/L was adjusted once by 5 pips.
Was supposed to scalp but taken an early entry. average loss position was smooth. I realise the price entry of my first position was actually the same as Bottle's. And most of the period of this position price never went higher than +1 floating profit.
After some time.. retracements slowly making its way after a long dollar rally day.. very very slowly.. zzz. don't like my entries today.
+7 pips, first position still running.
Friday, March 12, 2010
Session: New York.
Duration: 2 minutes.
Strategy: Took advantage for reversal off exhausted buyers whom reached day high twice, prior to entry. First reach day high was after the release of of US Trade Balance (bullish) and Unemployment claims (bearish).
Came home after lesson to see a long candlestick, which obviously was due to the news release. Price climb its way up before exhausted and then reversal. Taken a short ride down quickly and out. S/l was set after entry. Manual closed at profit.
Will be away for the weekend friends, sister's wedding this Saturday. Congratulations to her. It's a big big big big day! So happy for her! :)
Happy trading and enjoy your weekends.
Wednesday, March 10, 2010
Duration: 1 hour 20 minutes.
Technical: Top fibo line and day high.
Strategy: Short when buyer momentum stops at day high, 50% fibonacci.
When price finally hit on the positive side, secure my profit on +2 s/l, and extended my t-p.
Price hovers towards next fibo line and i closes it when momentum dies off on 1.3600 double zeros level.
Luckily not too greedy this time, hours later, dollar bear across board. Otherwise i would be pulling my hair again.
Session: Sell Stop hit during Asian session.
Duration: 6 hours 40 minutes.
Timeframe: Hourly, Daily.
Technical: Fibo, Bollinger.
Strategy: Put a sell stop below support off Hourly chart, which is also below mid bollinger in Daily chart.
First entry closed at +47 pips.
Second entry to run, with stop/loss at b/e.
Tuesday, March 9, 2010
But im really impressed by their offer for full refund if we dont get to triple that amount in 6mths... i really do.. if i have the excessive cash with me...
Anyways end of my thoughts lets get back to trading. The above picture shows 2 trades i enter at almost the same time. Im doing my favourite of waiting for price to retrace to how much i want before i enter trade.
Timeframe / Pairs : 1st picture EUR/USD 2nd picture GBP/USD both 4Hour
Technique : Bollinger Band + EMAs
EUR/USD was a bad one if u see properly, i hit my SL and continue down to my desired profit taking. It was crazy, at one point of time both trade was like -20 to -30 over. But everything was in place, SL TP. I just wait and be disciplined. Follow my system.(Though i lost hope n confidence after lots of RED) After my EUR/USD closed due to SL. I was like a sitting duck waiting for my GBP/USD to close as well due to SL.
Fortunately, things goes as plan, i suppose buyers rallied and lost.. price starts to go down and touched the mid of 4Hour Bollinger Band. Like what FX commented before, my 50pips profit could have been a 80pips. He got it right this time round! The price did smash through my Tp and went farther down to where i initially thought the price might hit. But in order to be satisfied n not be greedy, i just set it at 50pips profit so that if things dont go my way... i will not start bitching in this blog. BANG.... Bad move
Fundamental wise, there is no news that night except for someone speaking, cant remember who was it but Forex Factory stats that it may have some effects on GBP.
Technically, its Bollinger Band... 80% of price stays within the band (according to a trade book i read) So when price fails to breakup at GBP/USD, i shorted it and target at mid of the Band. Further analysing i realize that the downtrend maybe strong enough to hit 1Hour's lower band. Thats what i mean by the above paragraph.. it could have been a 80pips but i choose to close at 50. Low confidence perhaps?Well for EUR/USD, i went in too early perhaps? The top side of the Band has not been tested. So a strong rally came to try reach for it... and hit my SL before going down to my desired Tp which is the mid of the Band. Patience patience patience....
Still im happy that the night end on the green side.
Theres always light at the end of the tunnel...
Monday, March 8, 2010
The talk is here in Singapore over last weekend. I bet we're the youngest attendees on the Saturday afternoon session. After discount, the lesson (if you are interested to participate) is $5,000. If you do not triple your account after six months, the $5,000 is return to you, fully. Very attractive. We didnt have that much money to start in the first place.
Well, at least we have insights on options trading, which, in turns leaves us one more investment option. We'll talk about it some day though.
Duration: 40 minutes.
Technical: Moving average, Fibo.
Strategy: Candle closes below 50SMA, 10SMA crossover 20SMA. Take profit at fibo line, stop loss behind 20SMA.
The impulse of going in to get it back was here again. But i held, told myself, the analysis has been wad i was doing. Take it and we'll try again another day. Forget about how this loss stack over my NFP night last Friday, this is part of the loss in my analysis. I think i needed to wait for New York crossover session.
Friday, March 5, 2010
Forex market is a scary stuff, before u thought u have some consistency in reaping bit by bit, u slipped and fell back to square one.
Tuesday, March 2, 2010
But!!! Those above are only temporary, i enjoyed my weekend and came back to reality. I studied back and find out my faults. Learn from it, carry on and avoid making those mistakes. How many more mistakes can i make?? I told myself... Someday i will finish commiting all the mistakes and learn from all of them, thats when i will be a better trader. Well some of u may say, "there is no end to learning in trading... " If thats the case, i'll be glad enough to learn most of it and will carry on learning.
Lets talk about my lost for that month. That month was a low trade month for myself and i
believe Black too.. Due to Chinese New Year i guess, the mood for trading is just not there u see.. So every trade that i did must count for something. But that is not the case. The number of lost trade are more than profits.
Finally i came to a conclusion, it has something to do with my setting of TP. Well i always emphasize on good entry position and Profit Vs Lost Ratio, during a trade it has to be like example,
(Profit 50pips Lost 35pips) A 15pips difference for this case. Sometimes 10, 7,5pips or watever. The reason for this is to maximize my wins and cut my lost. So that even with a 1 Win and 1 Lost. I will still end up profitting abit. During a long run with this strategy, i can consolidate and compound up till 50 - 100 pips even when my success rate for number of trades is like 50%. This strategy was proven useful for my last 2 months. The usefulness of this strategy is more obvious during my last month's review as my success rate for that month is almost 50%.
Now so why the hell did i come out with a Red for Feb??? After i talk so much above and somehow like bragging how good it is, i end up losing?? Well the reason for losing partly is, quite ironically, caused by the above strategy as well... I put so much attention in my ratio, that i quite often ignore one of my most important commandment when setting my TP.
That is "Set ur TP at where your analysing tells you it will hit and not how many Pips you want from the trade."
Quite often i manage to come up with 30++pips profit before it went back down to either smash thru my Stop loss or ended due to the trailing stop i put up. Then i will soon realized that my price actually did hit one of the resistance/support when my profit is at ard 30pips++. I should have came out but instead i stay on because i want it to hit my TP of 50pips. Thats when i realize how stupid i am. Its greed perhaps? Its a scenario of Emotions over Thinking. Which is, to my opinion, not desireable in trading. But that doesnt mean the Profit Vs Lost Ratio strategy that i talked about doesnt work, its just that it cannot be a standalone strategy, it has to be used with confirmation with other signals.( Whelter there is any obstacles in the way such as resistance or support that i overlooked bla bla bla)
Now that i learn from my mistakes, i will try to not do it again. Learn from it and it doesnt matter how many mistakes u make. Mistakes indirectly makes me more powerful. I found that something has changed in me after i embarked on this journey of trading. Things that i value in life changed as well. Lets take reading for example, yea reading is good, everyone says so... Quite often we hear ppl say "Knowledge is Power". And fortunately, yup, im a reader. But, i read War novels, fantasy novels... hahaha, slashing killing romance and heroes. Its not gonna help! So a few months back i started reading on something more useful, read on the Bio of successful people, read on books on Trading, the mentality bla bla bla that u see in bookstores, books that usually end up below the title Self Improvement. Thats the change that im talking about =)
The greatest asset is one that we all have, our brain