Friday, February 26, 2010
19 trades (12 winners, 7 losers)
(in terms of pips)
Week 1: +8
Week 2: +22
Week 3: +23
Week 4: -89
Month: -30 pips
Very bad end to the month after building consistently for the first 3 weeks. conclusion: revenge-monster is still alive, and kicking. PnL is still green, luckily. i took larger position sizes earlier in the month becuz my equity has hit certain target point. but fortunately, those larger position werent part of the time i went crazy.
For March, i am looking at going back to my original position size first, until i hit my equity target (hopefully). i am also looking at cultivating swing trading methods, but leaving position open thru news release is always not so comforting, rendering sleepless nights. i will try it on demo first though.
I am seeking new job, planning to make a switch. Hopefully doesnt land on somewhere that affects my trading routine. Bless me. Ultimately, one way or another, i dont foresee myself to become a full time trader in near future. reason no.1: obviously i am not capable so far. secondly, london and new york crossover trading hours is night time over here. so the least i should do is still maintain a day job. and employers pays u CPF in this country, which is something our citizens need very badly. property purchase, study loans, medical, retirement etc. lastly, if so i wouldnt be bothering with the night classes, would i?
Still in the process of reading Curtis Faith's book, very slow lol, which i had promised to do a review. becuz i was at the same time reading the book by Donald Trump - Think Big and Kick Ass. i will do a review of it up next.
Wednesday, February 24, 2010
i went with the trend, but another thing i found out was, to follow the trend, u still need a good entry. the above graph was simply wad happened to me last night. and my mind juz kept running about "i shouldnt have taken the second trade after the first profit", or "i shouldnt have even traded in the first place on the days when i have work and night classes!". but we cannot turn back time.
Attitude trader was right about his latest post. we're all given the same tools, same platform, same indicators but ultimately, what differs a successful trader and a loser is their attitude. now i understand when ppl say forex is a dangerous market u might get burn, they shd re-phrase instead "its not the market that is dangerous, its the way u control urself!"
after almost two months of small and consistent profits, evidently taking loss and swallow it for a night still seemed hard - which leads to more impulsive trades! i thought i had manage to slowly push this revenge-monster back into the Black-Abyss.. but after lurking in my shadow all these time it still witness itself alive after last night.
FX is right, growing up as a trader and improving isnt a monthly thing, it takes "year perspective" to see the change. no matter how slowly i am, i simply hope to see myself learning for the better. in another way, i m glad that this revenge-monster that is still found lurking within me, i knew it wouldnt be that easy to surpress, everytime it tries to kill me and fail, it makes me stronger!
im getting emotional here o dear. guess i will juz take a break for the rest of the month and continue the fight next week ok! i'll do up a review this weekend and hope to see all ur reviews doing good!
Tuesday, February 23, 2010
Was watching the good downtrend, and shorted after candle closes below 10 SMA line. i took a quick small ride downwards and closed. i thought it should be done for me short n sweet day. and i watched the price dipping further downwards, i thought i could ripped a bit more. i executed another position and regretted immediately. sold at bottom tip of the candle. what a fool!! and a greedy fool!!
cut my second position @ loss when price began to reverse.
Monday, February 22, 2010
Session: New York, London Crossover
Duration: 75 minutes, 34 minutes.
Technical: Moving Averages.
Strategy: Ranging market. Short below 50 SMA line after candle. Average in second position.
First entry screen shot. Basically, price was against me 95% of the trade duration for this position. I adjusted my stop loss slightly, although it wasnt hit at all. bad risk:reward ratio, bad habit, simply trading for the chance.
Price was going my way. My second position (average in) has been closed. i wanted to close my first position once i hit profit because this trade is getting overtime. it has reached 70 minutes. juz as the price seems to be going down, my internet connection loss. i came back to see the above, price was 1 pip before my tp and went back up. i would have close it if i was connected.
very much pissed. basically 90% of the trade price was against me. all in my mind was whether my entry too soon, risk:reward ratio etc. and i was halfway thru' my blog post during trade and i was thinking whether to put the title "another why u shouldn't average loss" or "another pre-mature entry" or so on. psychological words running in ur head while u're in open position can be hell!
i keep it cool and let it run. price was about to retrace, but i told myself to let it run since i have already minimize my stop/loss. price spike down later and hit my take-profit (minimized too).
Sunday, February 21, 2010
Dear FXDD Customer,
We would like to welcome you to FXDD Malta and assist with any questions you may have with your account transfer. FXDD Malta hopes that you will enjoy trading with the same confidence that you have always placed in FXDD and assures you that you will have the same first class service and support you have become accustomed to.
Under the guidelines set forth by the NFA, your FXDD New York account will be transferred to FXDD Malta at the close of trading on Friday, February 19th, 2010. The standard trading session will resume on February 21st, 2010 at 23:00 CET. Transferred accounts will have the same balance, equity and open positions that were carried by FXDD New York.
The transition to FXDD Malta will be seamless for you and offers many advantages including:
- Higher leverage options
- Opportunity to employ “hedging” strategies in MT4
- Ability to choose ticket based trading (no FIFO)
- Segregated accounts – offering added safety of funds
- Funds can remain with JP Morgan Chase NY
Friday, February 19, 2010
One reason is that he goes emotional after the match, and i felt it with him too. i still remember he almost got the 2009 Australian Open but lost in the final but then later changed his role in the history of tennis. he has a facebook page where he did mentioned its his own in a video!! probably maintain by his agent or something, at least he plays a part in it. 3million fans at this point!
Secondly, so far i've seen him in matches, he is always calm during the matches. he does get taken aback by rare silly mistakes he made or poor luck at times, but he juz never gets his emotion overrun himself. thats a trait of a true champion. i can relate to trading from that. for example, a lot of times, i find myself pulling my hair or at the verge of throwing my mouse when a trade goes against me. it's bad!
Although the market doesnt take into account ur expression, unlike tennis, where u might boost ur opponent's confidence if u appear to look distress, it is still important to maintain calm. stay in ur setup, change only when tide turns, and never let emotion gets in your head!
Many times, i witness him down 2 sets, but still calmly claiming back 3 sets thereafter and winning the match. it feels to me like trading the cable, where i always have to face at least a -25 pips before it comes back. It is important to trust yourself and stay focus!
Celebrate or grieve only after the match (trades)!
Think like a champion, think like Roger Federer!
Wednesday, February 17, 2010
i wondered if being a trader/investor plays a part in my current thinking. i was thinking that, without doing something with ur money, u're exposed to lesser opportunity of making money. of cuz im not saying that trading is completely gambling, it is in some ways. and im definitely NOT encouraging u to gamble. trading is something like gambling. but gambling, is not trading.. remember that. so, i was basically having a good time with the relatives. as usual, good times flies and all of us were dreading back to work today.
so, today's set up.
Session: New York, London Crossover
Duration: 37 minutes, 15 minutes.
Technical: Fibo, Moving Averages.
Fundamental: US Building Permits.
Strategy: Entered after candle closes below fibo, downtrend along 10 sma. Average in second position after candle closes below fibo again. First position closed on half of target point. Second position s/l shifted to 38.2% fibo (first position's entry price). Price spike down to t/p after announcement, then recover quickly.
Down arrow is my short entry. thumbs up is my t/p, thumbs down is my s/l.. basically the 2 fibo points. i don't really have a good risk:reward ratio, that is bad. i turn the risk:reward to a good ratio only when price advances in my favour.
take-profit at mid-fibo. letting my 2nd position to run.. through the announcement. unsurprisingly, a lower than forecast US Building Permits, price dips, and then recover quickly. the reason i had the courage to let my 2nd position run through the announcement was that, looking back in my trade journal, US Building Permits does not have significant price reaction to the announcement.
pretty lucky to have winning trades after almost resting for a week. i was afraid of losing my momentum. lucky start for the year of the Tiger. Have fun!
Friday, February 12, 2010
Thank you readers and our trader friends! We'll be back for MORE action! in the meantime, good luck to your tradings! Happy Holidays! :)
On Behalf of Black & Bottle
Thursday, February 11, 2010
Session: New York, London Crossover
Duration: 4 minutes, 12 minutes
Technical: Fibo, Moving Averages.
Strategy: Long candle prior to entry. First position closed at breakeven of second position's stop/loss. Letting second position run.
after the momentum of breakdown candle cool-off, i went long. price went with me immediately. after it retraces down i went another (smaller) position in. the profit from my first closed position was enough to cover the second position's stop loss.
unfortunately, price dips, touches exactly at my stop loss and retraces back up all the way to my supposedly t-p. blood almost spill out of my guts.
first green X is my first closed position at profit. second red X hits my stop-loss exactly at fibo and went up. the problem with me not wanting to shift my stop-loss slightly below the fibo 61.8% is that i didnt want the stop/loss to overrun my first position's profit. if only i had stick to my usual mentality! see how nicely it rests at the fibo (similar to previous support) and retraces. fibo is simple, but it works. didn't want to go on again before there was news coming up next on US Trade Balance.
Wednesday, February 10, 2010
Ok this month's green! And as u can see, its not totally smooth up all the way... there is bumps here and there on the way up. This month wasn't quite consistent as i have hoped. Inconsistent in terms of winning trades. Its almost 50/50. And there were quite a few mistakes that i realize i have made. Nonetheless the month was still green due to some "rules" that i practice.
Firstly, my Trade Profit is always higher than my Stop Loss. Meaning its always TP 50pips SL 40pips or TP 40pips SL 30pips. There is always a 10pips difference. SO even if its a 50% winning ratio on trades, these 10s and 10s of pips slowly can make a difference to your account in the long run.
Secondly, I always try to enter trade with my first "rule" in mind. Lets say if i want to place my SL for my Long trade right below the next Support level and it is like 50pips away. With a TP of also 50pips away at next Resistance level. I will often do a buy limit at a position more favourable to my first rule. Meaning i will place my buy limit 10 to 15 pips nearer to my SL. So if this Buy Limit is hit, my new SL will be 40pips away with a TP of 50pips or more. I find that its safer this way, lowering risk and stretching my profit.
Above is the good i did, now the bad. Bad thing is, i often kept in mind how many pips i wan to gain from a trade, its like so natural that i overlook some important stuff. The correct way is actually setting up TP/SL at a point where the price will hit and be resisted or supported and afterwhich is unknown, breakthru or not. And from a chart, we can see lots of these points. Be it Moving average Bollinger band or FIBO or Week high/low ( These are what i use but not sure about u yea?) But im sometimes blinded by the amount of pips i aim for and set a too high TP. Instead of choosing the one point that may get hit, i chose one that is too far behind. Quite often i miss it and it all went back. Sucking up my profit and worst, go all the way to SL without having the chance for me to close and breakeven.
I told myself, "Set ur TP at where the chart shows high chance will hit and not how much pips u want from it, the Forex chart dont give a damn on how much u want!"
I apologise if i did lots of talking but not much actual trade shown in this blog, was very busy recently with work and stuff ( family and love ones ). I will try to post up next trade of mine with picture presentation. Lol. Well i may not know if u guys understand what im blabbering about above u see. Ha and CNY is coming, got cleanings to do... Damn, more stuff building up..
Yup so this month i recover a total of 156 pips. Thats what 10s and 15s of pips can do in the long run despite low hit rate.
Monday, February 8, 2010
Our name black bottle obviously has no relation with the legendary Black Bottle Scotch Whisky.. although we have to admit we love it! Crazy night. Ok enough of side-tracking. Here are my set ups today:
Session: New York, London Crossover
Duration: 35 minutes, 10 minutes, 30 minutes.
Technical: Fibo, Moving Average.
Strategy: Short Eur/Usd on candle closed below white 10SMA, average in on next candle closed below lime 20SMA and 23.6% fibo. Short Gbp/Usd on candle closes below trendline.
Second arrow on average in.
Exited my second position at my first position's entry price. First position closed after failing to push thru 38.2% fibo.
My entry was horrible. I had bad experiences with the cable as i couldnt quite take the volatility. I knew i want to get out the moment i entered. Main reason i shorted was due to the nice downtrend. I admit that i moved my stop/loss for 5 more pips away but that saved this trade.
Closed it the moment it retraces and touches my red 50SMA.
Night total: +26 pips
I logged in to my Currensee.com trading community and updated a few stuff. I linked it up with our blacknbottle twitter, and it basically auto-tweet my entries. You have to have a LIVE account to link to currensee. at first i felt a bit uncomfortable at this auto announcement of my entries the moment i execute the trade, will someone saw it and say 'what the hell, this dumbass juz shorted Gbp/Usd???'
but i doubt most ppl will be bothered about it. u can actually see my trades in the Tweets at the side-bar. this weekend will be Chinese New Year, can't wait to receive some red packets, lol. The year of the Ox has been "volatile", like the pounds. Its soon time to say good-bye to the Ox and welcome the Year of the Tiger. I hope this will be a GOOD year and everything will be smooth.
Not only smooth and good to our trades and wealth, most importantly, our relationships with our family and love, career and HEALTH!
Wednesday, February 3, 2010
but more often than not, instead of being wary of whats coming, for some reason i trade the news instead. ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, here are the data:
Session: New York, London Crossover
Duration: 24 minutes.
Fundamental: US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change.
(Previous: -84k, Forecast: -31k, Actual: -22k)
Strategy: Entry ten minutes before data release. Bullish data as employment change was better than forecast. Price reacted only ten minutes after the release.
Latest candle was the after the release. taken a short ride down at the opening price of the last candle. price is still going down as the point of writing. that was it for me, target for the day. +10 pips.
won't be trading for the next two days. having night class tomorrow, and a fren's birthday party the night after, maybe. which means to say i may be giving this month's NFP a miss. i realised that i have been keeping up with various trading blogs which i've followed, and found out that this traders community is pretty interesting. u got people from all over the globe, different opinions and perspective, some do blog about their personal life too, from there u get to noe them even better.
i hope this doesnt affect my actual social life outside lol, as RCM once said to me this:
something to remind myself about.
good tradings my frens. later.
Tuesday, February 2, 2010
Session: Entry on New York, London Crossover, Closed out on Asia Session.
Duration: 1 hour, 12 hours 30 minutes, Split Second (3 positions)
Fundamental: Speculation on RBA rates hike.
Strategy: Buy Stop hit prematurely before US ISM Manufacturing PMI announcement for first two positions. Closes position when profit is able to meet second position's stop/loss. Therefore, second position s/l is at breakeven of day's trades. Third position is buy limit, hours before RBA Cash Rate announcement.
Duration represents three positions, and first two positions in green, meaning winners. last position, a redundant (i'll explain why) in red, a loser. Please bear this long story post as i'll try my best to cut it short.
A good strategy taught by Kathy Lien from the book Day Trading and Swing Trading the Currency Market on securing profit. i went in two buy limit position. first position on 2/3 size, second one 1/3. got all red juz minutes after entry hit. but soon retraced into positive. i take the s/l of the 1/3 position into consideration, say 30 pips away. as my first position 2/3 was good enough to cover my second position's stop loss, i closed it. in this case, even if my second position hits the s/l, i will simply be at b/e becuz my first trade has already covered the second trade's s/l. this leaves a flexibility for my second trade.. as i went to sleep.
morning i woke up with my second position at +58. i protected my profit by adjusting my s/l at +30pips. with that, i secured a +30, i put in a buy limit 20 points below (3rd position i am speculating a rate hike from Reserve Bank of Australia from 3.75% to 4.00%), with s/l of 30 pips away. so if this third position, happens to hit s/l, it would b/e with my second position without further loss. all sounding perfect.
ALL THESE DOES NOT APPLY TO A MASSIVE BREAKOUT!!
Why? If you would take a look at my second and third position transaction history below:
2nd position: s/l set on 0.8885, but price closes 0.8872 - 13 pips slippage!
3rd position: buy limit - position closed the moment it enters, in addition - 7 pips slippage! <-- very dumb trade, that was why i said it was redundant.
all these slippage costs me 20 pips. and it happens commonly during massive breakout. Massive breakout? I was basically watching the price in my office. it basically drop 100 pips in less than a minute. my browser refreshes, the price difference for a moment, had me thought i had mistakenly stared at a different pair.
price spike down. i was in long position. u noe how does that feel.. after the 100 pips pitfall? it was like a golfer who swing and misses his golf ball and the golf club went right to ur balls instead. but i thought i had a good protective armour around it to deflect the impact, and this protective armour is called the stop/loss. who noes? when i got home to see the transaction history, i still find some crack in my nut. and this crack is called slippage.
im so sorry to use these language, pls pardon me. anyway, juz to let u see the spike down. here is the chart:
Winners and losers all over in that single long bear candle. speculating the interest rate of aussie might have another hike and placing a position before the announcement, was simply gambling. lesson learned on slippage, and having positions open while not on my trading desk. lesson for u? please don't try this at home.
thanks to my first position, closed the night before, secured a +16.
Monday, February 1, 2010
This is basically my trade p/l graph for the month of January generated from my MT4. Interestingly, a full scale Eilliot's Wave can also be witness from a p/l graph - one pretty important chart pattern, but something irrelevant in this case. Well, it looks good as obviously it was a profitable month, but thru' thorough examinations and reviewing of my trades, i still find it pretty unstable. Profitable trading has to reach some kind of consistency.
Summarizing my result for January:
43 trades: 27 winners, 14 losers, 2 b/e.
i am happy for the number of pips reaped for the month, although it was way off my target (50 pips per week), considering other commitments at hand, and also school lessons resuming, it is good enough, but still, it can be better.
for the percentage gain on my capital, it is pretty small. i was focusing on the pips earn for January, and had been using the micro lots on my trades. in fact, the gains practically can't even buy u two set meals from Hungry Jack's.
thankful for a profitable month of Jan, as for February, i will be giving a little more focus on Money Management. in another words, i think i shd be focusing on the risk-to-reward in terms of percentage of my capital. will take it slowly, hopefully wouldnt blow up my account lol. i'm still digesting a post though, from fxmadness.com's Mike, on increasing Forex returns through compounding. i guess that is one of the most important factor on profitable forex trading. he is a great writer, and a trader of course, u should find more useful information in the link.
some time back, i bought two motivational posters and stick 'em up at the door of my wardrobe. it may be something u've heard all the while but i still find them very meaningful, in terms of life, work, and even trading.
ATTITUDE: Your Attitude Determines Your Altitude. (Kinda reminds me of attitude trader lol)
This is basically talking about discipline. In life, in the corporate ladder or even in trading, u need discipline. u need the positive attitude, to learn, to overcome obstacles, and not to give up! the more positively inclined u are, the higher u can achieve. master traders don't slack and became what they are, without going thru' ups and downs and overcoming obstacles.
RISK: Take risk. If you win, you will be happy. If you lose, you will be wise. Nothing ventured, nothing gain.
I love this phrase. Especially the last part. Nothing ventured, nothing gained. If you had been to my blog at the beginning few months, you would've notice i used that quote as the captions for my page header. all of us have ventured here, into the currency market, and we're all exposed to risk. i AM here to take risk, when i win, i am happy. when i lose, i am sad of course, but whether u will be wise or not, depends on whether u learn from ur losers. a quote from a friend, "Wisdom however... is a collection of experiences that has been converted into knowledge."
i am here to seek financial freedom. the will to learn this unique skill under this fast-paced environment as a currency trader, has slowly turn itself into a passion. and i believe passion can overcome a lot of things, the interest to learn, the ability to overcome difficulties and the will to excel.
considering the drawdowns me and Bottle have experienced, giving up is still not a part of our options.. although i have to admit, at some point of losing streaks, i felt intimidated juz by opening the chart and see the price movements.. we're looking ahead. and the next step, is, to simply have profitable months all the way thru' to mid-2010.
Happy trading, let's have a great month ahead!