"Take Risks: If you win, you will be happy; if you lose, you will be wise. Nothing ventured, nothing gained."

Wednesday, October 14, 2009

Forex - A Lesson Learned the Hard Way

Below are few of my trades this week. Ripped my virgins to some new pairs. Was watching the Nzd/Usd on monday night. So far, only Nzd/Usd first trade gives me bad news. I ripped +121 for my first Aud/Usd, +65 for my Usd/Jpy. But forex isn't just about the first trade, its about consistency.

Few cross-over towards the downside. Trend pattern downwards, it tapped my top of trendline to give a good sell signal. Instead of strolling down the trend, it ranged thru' the fibonacci, hit my S/L (2%) when NZD Retail Sales report was good. Should have (notice how many should-ve i used this post) sold before the annoucement although was at a losing trade, becuz the forecast was good. Well basically my Nzd/Usd didn't had a positive profit points @ all, 5 pips spread, Woah~ thinking twice before i pick-up another Kiwi in future, lesson learnt.

Next up, feeling good with the Koalas due to the week before. I too, short the pair. Gold price is reaching new HIGH, oh so high, so was Aud/Usd (in fact right now too). Looks pretty resisted at the top of my trendline and close to fibo, i think its time Aud/Usd might retrace. My S/L was lower than 2%, slightly above the nxt line of fibo. It ripped thru my S/L the nxt morning.

Tuesday was looking at Usd/Jpy pair. Looks to me like the Elliot Waves' forming.. coming towards the downslope. Short at the top of a candle, as usualy Stop/Loss @ 2%, before next line of resistance. 25 points trailing stop in place. ranging price throughout the day. Till this morning it began to continue trending downwards. I could see USD depreciation among major pair most of today. Reach home to see a +80pips, another classic. maintained my trailing S/L, till it finally hit. Pocket about +65 pips at the end of the trade.
About two hours after the above, i decided to take a bit of a Eur/Usd a few pips, with HIGH LOT. and i lost high LOT. and i tried even HIGHER LOT to make up what's lost, and i lost even HIGHER LOT! 3 weeks of consistent profit - lost in one afternoon.

Small retail players like us, especially new ones, should maintain small lot size. The difference? Of course winning and losing amount! U wanna win big? u think forex is a fast pace market, u CAN win BIG! i win BIG in one trade before, about 20%+ of my account in one trade. and that, spellls the start of my disastrous habit i couldn't kick which tore my account big time.

"You can swim a great amount of distance in the rapids (high volatility and liquid market), but without the fundamentals of swimming and water treading (price analysis, knowledge and MONEY MANAGEMENT), your course of journey (trading life) will just be swept (S/L GOT HIT) across." - Black

So please, Black, for the last time (i hope), control your LOT SIZE, and VENGEANCE MINDSET!

the reason i can profit consistently (even though small, but compounding effect is magic) becuz i had been controlling the lot size i enter in a trade. calculate the number of pips towards the price it might go against u, from there then u determine the lot size to enter, and make sure that the multiply of the two does not exceed 2% of your account. even a losing trade, gives u hope, becuz u got more allowance to let the price move against ur trade, juz like what happen to my Usd/Jpy this week, let it ride its actual course towards ur goal. but using mini lot in few hundred dollar account is suicide.

Take a deep breath, and life goes on.

"Don't let a losing trade knock your pride, if you never give up, there will be glory ahead for you to ride"

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