"Take Risks: If you win, you will be happy; if you lose, you will be wise. Nothing ventured, nothing gained."

Thursday, April 29, 2010

Black: April Review

Week 1: -121
Week 2: Rest (no trade)
Week 3: +37
Week 4: -62

Month: -146
Equity: -20%

This is some serious drawdown man. I cant imagine a scarier roller coaster ride than the equity graph plotted above - flat dead. conclusively, old habits are still kicking. I still cant accept a losing night, therefore leads to revenge trades and then leads to such catastrophe.

I dont whether anyone would agree with me, but after learning to play Texas Hold'em for some time, i find a little similarity in it with trading. there are bound to be risk, and you CAN'T WIN EVERY round. u are meant to fold. it is part of the game. when u get bad cards, u fold. u lose the initial "deposit" (what do they call it?) when u have bad cards in hand.. because base on probability, any pair greater than 2 or 5 (if those were the cards u were holding) you'd lose.

the winning part comes when u got pictures, or higher cards or pairs, best with an ace pairs. thats when chances are at your side and u can throw higher stake. still bound to lose, but probability are at your side (i wouldnt say chances because i feel chances are random). i never call super-high stakes when i dont have pairs to back me up, this is my poker rule, that should never have one single stake that kicks u out of the game.

Coming back to trading, this spells the Risk:Reward ratio. Accept the small loses, cuz the big one will cover them, all when chances are here. fundamentally, i failed to apply good risk:reward ratio, miserably.

If i can apply good risk:reward ratio in trading like playing poker, the question is, when is it the right time, or rather when do i know i'm holding an "ace pair"?

time to buck up. otherwise, this blog will sooner or later be renamed "101 things you should not do when trading forex".


Saturday, April 24, 2010

Revenge of the Chart.

Learned a new technique from some site posted by some guy... so decided to try on it since he was so sure that it works and that he tested it numerous time. He succeeded almost everytime he use it as he claim. Well, i backtested and it looks ok so... i tried to do it.

This technique goes like this, consist of 3 period 50 Bollinger Bands (3 4 and 5 deviation respectively) and if the price touchs the blue one(second Bollinger Band), there is a high possibility that the price will retrace to the middle red line which is the 50ma. I did succeed a few times with this system, its kinda not my style though, as this is more used for scalping whereas i go for longer period trading kind.. so i managed to scalp 2 times of 10pips and once 2pips. But this flop destroyed me.

For what actually happened, u may refer to my attached image above. Well maybe someone can modify it abit and make it more reliable? Who knows... im just sharing yea? There maybe some potential to it. Lol. Cos the price as promised... always do retrace to 50ma. Just that the entry isnt good enough and before it can hit the target.. my stop gets hit.

I tickled the chart for a few pips and it punch me for 40... F***

Once u learn to quit, it becomes a habit.

Friday, April 23, 2010

22 Apr, Eur/Usd - Bear Has Left His Ass On Me

Guess i joined the bear a little too late. I wanted to pick audusd but it seems to move slower than eurusd and the pips higher. so i picked my usual eurusd. but sadly, if i had sold aussie on 0.9250, i would have taken at least ten pips and sleep. eurusd barely go down, anymore. going against me seem like the usual easy thing to do. The struggle never came through.

-22 pips.

I just told FFXD not to give up, but should i?

Wednesday, April 21, 2010

21 Apr, Eur/Usd - Do Re Mi Lot Size

Short at 1.3400. I did something different today. Instead of averaging loss, i did an average win. The thing about averaging-winner is that when price went against u u look like an idiot. My first average-in position opened with a slippage.. due to the US Crude Oil Inventories announcement that created a small knee jerk movement, unexpectedly.

Third average-winner position went well. I learned my lesson today. My first position at the smallest size lot and follow by higher when trade becomes confident. I still think price will go further down, based on Daily chart, but then again anything can happen.

The thing about trading small lot size is that u need to take more steps (pips) to get to where you wan. But you can do so more comfortably.

+19 pips.. another small small step back.


Tuesday, April 20, 2010

20 Apr, Eur/Usd - Scalp Scalp Scalp

Always remind myself to take smaller size in first position, only after realising i had too much exposure. Euro rallied right after New York session hit, against me (once again). This is very bad move for scalping - when u cant catch the first move. I average-in twice with smaller sizes, before price quickly go in my favour. Scored on the 2nd n 3rd position and closed my first (freaking bad price) position at small loss. Pretty short night.

Came across Denarii Trader's blog earlier and saw some interesting posts. I saw a comment to him by someone who tried to give him some encouragement with a nice quote. This is very true, and here it goes:

"Once you stop fighting for what you want, what you don't want will automatically take over"

+16 pips


Monday, April 19, 2010

19 Apr, Eur/Usd - Short Swing & Wasted Shit!

Taken a short swing today. Sold the euros and went to work. As i'm recovering from previous lost, i took very small position. I sold off at early session 1.3486. 2nd position (sell stop) hit at 1.3460. Taking small position gives me a lot of comfort to swing.

When i came home after work, price was about +40 and +66, i did not close. I thought it could (instead of i want) go further. but after New york session came in, euro recovered. my trailing was hit at +8 and +32. &$*#^@&#^) wasted shit! well, at least a win. one little step towards recovering my losses. Anyway, i really wondered if the Iceland Volcanoes that halt so many EU airports does affect the euros?

+40 pips.



Bottle, Grinder Trader and I have formed up a trading team in Currensee.com. Quite cool, we can see one another's position and what other majority of other traders' position are. This requires a live account to sign up as it links to your live account.

It's free, do sign up with my link if you're interested, but most importantly, JOIN US AFTER YOU REGISTERED!!

Sunday, April 18, 2010

Blacky Backie

Well, not exactly on my trade postings though. Just a few words (prep-talk?) before the new week begin. It's the firstime, i had a completely tradeless week ever since i embarked in this trading journey. Not really that unproductive though, my new work begun, some catching up with friends and love ones, and my school assignments joining in the fun.

My mind, kept away from trading most of the time this week. My heart though, still beating for a come-back. My trader-blogger community of friends are wonderful, it is the encouragement they gave u when u're knocked out and at least i know what i just been through and i'm not alone in this kind of process. most traders go thru' this same shit. Bottle goes thru' the same shit. So do i.

I had forgotten my role in this year's trading resolution and the monetary gains (instead of pips i should be targeting) blinded me and therefore revenge trades happened. I should really study the importance and the way of achieving long-term success in forex trading.

If schedule permits, i should be posting on trades soon. Great to see most guys out there doing well, take care!


Saturday, April 10, 2010

Black Out

Taken a beating in the market. I have unacceptable losses which mount into greater ones when emotion takes over the analytical brain and senses. Im not giving up but will take things at a slower pace.

For the time being, I should be posting sim trades under Oanda as i'm looking to familiarize with this platform, hopefully by mid-year. I hate to repeat that after slow and steady gains (seldom letting profit runs) it takes juz one day to blow it up.

Today i experience and encounter with the market (yet again) in such a way when, i sell - it goes up, i buy as it goes up - and then it goes down, and i join the ride - juz before it go back up, and then again. basically, i screwed myself.

Sometimes i wonder, in the most simplified terms, isn't market juz bi-directional? buy for it to go up, sell for it to go down. but it's more than that, u need to know the current market (volume and volatility), u need to know how much u are willing to lose, how much to take-profit, and when to close the shot when time's up when the trades when over time. these simply went out last night.

It's more than juz entering the market with plan. Can't deny the fact we're humans and instead of letting profit run, we let emotions run. Always need go through the hard way for me to realise these important overlooked factors.

Screw me, i'll take some time off and be back.


Tuesday, April 6, 2010

6 Apr, Aud/Usd - Trading RBA Rate Announcement

Trading the RBA Rate announcement.

I saw Mike's opinion on the Aussie rate announcement and it was fine. I agree there was a limit it can rise if they hike the interest rate another 0.25%, because i learned my lesson about this news if they halt the interest rate and the slippage that could cause in February RBA announcement trade.

Therefore, i came out with another plan. Which is to enter prior to the announcement, with a Sell Stop and a Buy Stop - which is to 'go with the flow'. Although like DT mentioned, it's gambling (trading before news), but i find the odds are fine (not great though) but i have to monitor the position closely because disaster are still bound to happen when you trade, let alone gamble.

I transacted my stops 5 minutes before the announcement. Price was hovering around 0.9175 to 0.9185. Here are my transactions:

Sell stop: 0.9150 (x5 size)
s/l : 0.9170 t/p: 0.9100

Buy stop: 0.9200 (x3 size)
s/l : 0.9180 t/p: 0.9250

Both 50 points profit and 20 points stop-loss and both entry are 25 pips away from current price. Indeed, rates hiked. My buy stop entry was hit immediately, and like the usual NFP movement (up and down vigorously) i remained where i was, i canceled my sell stop transaction and entered another x2 size long on pullback.

Closed both position on a 15M high and 20 minutes after the announcement, price has made another 10 pips+ higher. That was it for my day.

+20 pips


6 Apr, Eur/Usd - Head & Shoulder

Eur/Usd. Last night was watching the price forming the right shoulder in 4H timeframe, but did not enter the trade. Price had formed a beautiful right shoulder now 11am singapore time - with both shoulders rebounding off brown 100SMA and the head rebound off light blue 200SMA. Sweet, but no trade.

Staying and watch the RBA rate announcement later, till then.


Monday, April 5, 2010

Black: Taking a Hiatus

I'm taking a hiatus due to personal reasons. I need to re-focus my personal life and re-claim what belongs to me which is important. I'll still post some review or update whenever i can, but wouldn't be as active as i was. I'm not joining the rest of the guys to feed Jules cat even if its juz within my country. I need some serious re-group and i really, really will be back.

Thanks all the readers, i really appreciate those who do drop by.


PS: This is something by posted Seeni in his twitter before, which i think is equally important for each and everyone to take a look. Caution: duration is as long as a movie. Enjoy.

Video: Home

Thursday, April 1, 2010

Black: March Review & Short Break

Hi guys, time for a review as i'll be away for the rest of the week. Like FX, i'll be going away on a short trip to neighbouring country for couple of days on Good Friday - it will be holiday here in Singapore, not too sure in the States but i know i'm missing out the NFP this friday. Tomorrow is my last day of work with my current employer, it's good to take a break, keep ur mind off things and refresh myself for a week before embarking new workplace.

42 trades: (30 winners, 11 losers, 1 b/e)

Week 1: -53
Week 2: -4
Week 3: +68
Week 4: -5
Week 5: +35

Month: +41
Profit/Loss: +4.36%

Other than start of the month, which i loses focus, i'm pretty glad for the rest of the month, than the last. After my big dip earlier this month, i managed to trade consecutively 18 winners, a streak i've never experience before. But talking about quality, i think im still far from it.

I'm still hoping one day i can trade on larger scale - swinging my trades. But like what Seeni told me, if it's working for me, just stick to it first. During my trades this month, i've also been actively surfing the Currensee.com, you can set your own strategy and then track your performance. You can even see others' performance, making it a open community for the forex traders.

I hope to maintain good trades next month. Hopefully i'll still be as active when i go to new work place and school assignments are coming too. Well, need to brush up my risk:reward and profit-running strategies.

Keep it touch.

Related Posts Plugin for WordPress, Blogger...