"Take Risks: If you win, you will be happy; if you lose, you will be wise. Nothing ventured, nothing gained."

Tuesday, December 20, 2011

2011 Review - Plus Usd/Chf & Poker Wiped Out


Kinda early? I decide to wrap this up because tomorrow night I am flying away to Harbin, China, for a week trip. It is going to be freezing cold I heard.. about -20 deg celsius. On top of that, my Usd/Chf trades have finally hit the stop loss.

After Usd/Chf broke the ten-month high last week, I made a fruitful ride up the pair for about 175 pips (closed), I also long a second position on retrace which was peaked at +50 over pips. But overconfidence and greed caused me this huge drawdown.. in addition to my bad habit of averaging losers

I was so confident with the trades that when I was switching between my chart and news.. right before the SNB announcement about 30 minutes.. my second position was down to about break-even. Then I went in a third position, after another alt-tab between chart, both positions were instantly -50 -60 floating loss.



Disbelieved, I later long another position stubbornly when price looks like it will hold. But it didn't.

It went on for days and all the way until today, giving me hope but false hope. The initial broken 0.9350 level of ten month high resistance turned support didn't hold. The slow and steady fall and rise a little these few days by this pair feels like some one who is trying to kill you, pushes the knife slowly into your stomach instead of stabbing right in it. Slowly, and gently. And before you know it, JAMMED IT IN.

Trading: Year-to-date profit/loss: +30% (loss count of pips, probably -2000 plus) 

First year of profit since I live traded in 2009.

I have an account for myfxbook which Trader32 recommends, my nick is black147. Don't know the add-friend function and not sure if it exists.

Early part of the year, trading hasn't been much active due to work and exams. I did have major drawdown twice, in March and in August, both occur within each day. After my come back in October, things has been going pretty smooth except for my last trade in Usd/Chf. Oh well, shit happens.

Like what FX used to tell me, trading skills doesn't happen overnight or monthly, it takes years to realise. And this year, I am glad to finally found my trading style. Not completely I guess but somehow. I can't scalp, I can't position trade. I have to do intra-day to medium term swing trades. I can't sit at the chart for hours because any losses will tilt me and I will bust my account within one night like I did countless times.

Next up, I will need to focus on my discipline (again), on my risk:reward ratio, tendency to widen stop/losses, averaging losers, and over confidence and more.. Before this Usd/Chf drawdown, for the past two months I kept my stop/losses within what my account can take, about 2-4%, so that in case it hit the stop/loss, I don't take it that hard. I need to work on that. I will come back 2012 focusing on trading and reading up more, as well as working on discipline.. why not poker.. which comes to the next topic..


I been on it for about 1.5 years now. I am not sure how long usually profitable poker players took to be profitable. So far in my experience, profitable players are profitable, losing players are losers, they stay that way.

Yesterday, I busted my account once again. Past two weeks, I was reading up and working on 6-max online. I had HUD installed and was utilising it well. I maxed two-tabling, and focused on my game. Finally in my cash game career, I am grinding out profits for 6-max. I was happy.

Yesterday, I sat down and played my second session of the day. Within one hour, I was dealt 4 pocket aces.

First one, I raises 3bb and was called. I valued bet all the way and was called down and opponent hit a river flush. Well, I may be didn't bet enough to drive him out, but I thought I was value-betting?

Second aces, all folded to me except SB who called my preflop raise and folded to my c-bet. Earned a little.

Third aces, I raised 4bb and sb called me and hit a deuces set on flop. Oh well, stacked again.

Before my fourth pocket aces, I was dealt A4. Except first player who folded, all 4 other players limped and I raised to 7bb from SB, trying out a different aggression. Only the cut-off called.

Flop came 9 2 5.

I raised 15bb, he called.

To my delight, turn came 3, giving me a straight.

I raised 25bb and he re-raised me all in.

I put him on a set and he turned over 4 6 for a higher straight.

Welcome to micro-stakes.

Ultimate tilted, as always I went over the low stakes table, CAP (cap meaning only cap maximum bet).  I played tight and only planned to go all-in with premiums, like almost every other players were doing.

There was a lady who called down and all-in a lot. With a hud stats of about 50/20/60. Too loose.

Finally from BB I was holding my fourth ACES of the night. She raised me from SB to 3bb I re-raised to 6 bb.

Flop came T 9 7. She shoved me on the flop. I called, and she turned over J 9.

River J. She scooped the pot.

I am not sure how to go about from here because I think I have tried my best. I have spent a considerable sum (of money and time) for the past 1.5 years, and I am really feeling this is it. Looking over to my poker books gives a chill down my spine now. My cousin is a profitable poker player who earns my yearly pay and haven't read a single book. He even became the last standing Singapore player during yesterday's Sunday Million. He was so close to winning and so many of us were rooting for him to win, but he was busted with KK vs AA during the last 150 out of 61,000 over entrants. Sad for him, but it was such a deep run.

I am going to take a break and focus on my trading first. Take poker as casual play and I am still finding ways not to tilt (like in trading) and accept variance. Or looking for the most suitable game for my playing style. But will all be casual, or may be not at all.

Year-to-date profit/loss: BUSTED

Tomorrow night I will be flying off and my next post will probably be in 2012.

Good luck to y'all and have a great winter break!

Off to my first white Christmas~

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