2011 Review - Plus Usd/Chf & Poker Wiped Out

Forex

Kinda early? I decide to wrap this up because tomorrow night I am flying away to Harbin, China, for a week trip. It is going to be freezing cold I heard.. about -20 deg celsius. On top of that, my Usd/Chf trades have finally hit the stop loss.

After Usd/Chf broke the ten-month high last week, I made a fruitful ride up the pair for about 175 pips (closed), I also long a second position on retrace which was peaked at +50 over pips. But overconfidence and greed caused me this huge drawdown.. in addition to my bad habit of averaging losers. 

I was so confident with the trades that when I was switching between my chart and news.. right before the SNB announcement about 30 minutes.. my second position was down to about break-even. Then I went in a third position, after another alt-tab between chart, both positions were instantly -50 -60 floating loss.

Jaw-dropping.

Brutal.

Disbelieved, I later long another position stubbornly when price looks like it will hold. But it didn't.

It went on for days and all the way until today, giving me hope but false hope. The initial broken 0.9350 level of ten month high resistance turned support didn't hold. The slow and steady fall and rise a little these few days by this pair feels like some one who is trying to kill you, pushes the knife slowly into your stomach instead of stabbing right in it. Slowly, and gently. And before you know it, JAMMED IT IN.

Trading: Year-to-date profit/loss: +30% (loss count of pips, probably -2000 plus) 

First year of profit since I live traded in 2009.

I have an account for myfxbook which Trader32 recommends, my nick is black147. Don't know the add-friend function and not sure if it exists.

Early part of the year, trading hasn't been much active due to work and exams. I did have major drawdown twice, in March and in August, both occur within each day. After my come back in October, things has been going pretty smooth except for my last trade in Usd/Chf. Oh well, shit happens.

Like what FX used to tell me, trading skills doesn't happen overnight or monthly, it takes years to realise. And this year, I am glad to finally found my trading style. Not completely I guess but somehow. I can't scalp, I can't position trade. I have to do intra-day to medium term swing trades. I can't sit at the chart for hours because any losses will tilt me and I will bust my account within one night like I did countless times.

Next up, I will need to focus on my discipline (again), on my risk:reward ratio, tendency to widen stop/losses, averaging losers, and over confidence and more.. Before this Usd/Chf drawdown, for the past two months I kept my stop/losses within what my account can take, about 2-4%, so that in case it hit the stop/loss, I don't take it that hard. I need to work on that. I will come back 2012 focusing on trading and reading up more, as well as working on discipline.. why not poker.. which comes to the next topic..

Poker

I been on it for about 1.5 years now. I am not sure how long usually profitable poker players took to be profitable. So far in my experience, profitable players are profitable, losing players are losers, they stay that way.

Yesterday, I busted my account once again. Past two weeks, I was reading up and working on 6-max online. I had HUD installed and was utilising it well. I maxed two-tabling, and focused on my game. Finally in my cash game career, I am grinding out profits for 6-max. I was happy.

Yesterday, I sat down and played my second session of the day. Within one hour, I was dealt 4 pocket aces.

First one, I raises 3bb and was called. I valued bet all the way and was called down and opponent hit a river flush. Well, I may be didn't bet enough to drive him out, but I thought I was value-betting?

Second aces, all folded to me except SB who called my preflop raise and folded to my c-bet. Earned a little.

Third aces, I raised 4bb and sb called me and hit a deuces set on flop. Oh well, stacked again.

Before my fourth pocket aces, I was dealt A4. Except first player who folded, all 4 other players limped and I raised to 7bb from SB, trying out a different aggression. Only the cut-off called.

Flop came 9 2 5.

I raised 15bb, he called.

To my delight, turn came 3, giving me a straight.

I raised 25bb and he re-raised me all in.

I put him on a set and he turned over 4 6 for a higher straight.

Welcome to micro-stakes.

Ultimate tilted, as always I went over the low stakes table, CAP (cap meaning only cap maximum bet).  I played tight and only planned to go all-in with premiums, like almost every other players were doing.

There was a lady who called down and all-in a lot. With a hud stats of about 50/20/60. Too loose.

Finally from BB I was holding my fourth ACES of the night. She raised me from SB to 3bb I re-raised to 6 bb.

Flop came T 9 7. She shoved me on the flop. I called, and she turned over J 9.

River J. She scooped the pot.

I am not sure how to go about from here because I think I have tried my best. I have spent a considerable sum (of money and time) for the past 1.5 years, and I am really feeling this is it. Looking over to my poker books gives a chill down my spine now. My cousin is a profitable poker player who earns my yearly pay and haven't read a single book. He even became the last standing Singapore player during yesterday's Sunday Million. He was so close to winning and so many of us were rooting for him to win, but he was busted with KK vs AA during the last 150 out of 61,000 over entrants. Sad for him, but it was such a deep run.

I am going to take a break and focus on my trading first. Take poker as casual play and I am still finding ways not to tilt (like in trading) and accept variance. Or looking for the most suitable game for my playing style. But will all be casual, or may be not at all.

Year-to-date profit/loss: BUSTED

Tomorrow night I will be flying off and my next post will probably be in 2012.

Good luck to y'all and have a great winter break!

Black.
Off to my first white Christmas~

Crushed

Very smooth hit on the GBPUSD during the opening of London session yesterday. The pair was only the one break very fast up side. During their Retail Sales announcement, Oanda's spread for this pair widen to 30 pips. That is the highest me and Bottle has ever since. That is the down-side of having a floating spread broker. -50 pips

As for my Usd/Chf trade, my first trade was closed at +175 pips. During retrace, I entered another long hoping to ride further. Now that averaging winner became an average losers and my current position is in jeopardy right after Swiss National Bank on their monetary policy assessment. Not only my first trade position profit will be gone, there is more. Not sure what will happen now though, if it breaks down below 0.9350 I think this is it.

All too familiar.

Black.

Gbp/Usd & Drawing Dead

Sell-limit for Gbp/Usd on 50 SMA line wasn't triggered (less 1 pip away) and it went down a bit.. was kinda pissed and it later come back up and filled me in along with its ride.. take-profit +50 pips at previous low.

Usd/Chf is still running and been on ranging whole of today. Currently looking good. I am hoping to ride a long one for this. Do or die.

Am currently playing 6-max cash game for poker. Yesterday's session was running fine until I busto against a maniac who was raising overbet like 2x pot size for a few hands, as if trying to play punk.

So immediately the next hand I was dealt an AJ. He didn't look strong on pre-flop. Flop came A-J-5 and I thought I had this guy. He checked and I bet the shit out of him. In the end, he turned over pocket Aces, I was drawing dead since the flop. I opened my mouth staring blank and at the moment felt like how Mike McDermott got busto by KGB in the Rounders.. of course I didn't lose 3 high-society.. just my buy-in.

Today I was trying deep-stack 6-max. I played loosely (how I thought it was) and almost halved my stack. Quickly tightened up and luckily won back my losses, yesterday's losses and about a buy-in. Rare days for me for poker like this.

Black.

Start of Week

Did a sell-stop on Aud/Usd, take-profit at previous low. +61 pips

Buy-stop for Usd/Chf at 0.9350 triggered, above 10-month high. Hoping the trend won't end here but continue to go up.

Black.

Reality of life.

The day we smash our head into the wall together. Hand in hand.

Bottle

Love Price Action & PokerStars World Record Tourney

My first trade on this pair Eur/Gbp. Set-up today is basically an ALL-CABLE day. Nothing much about this pair, during Gbp/Usd rally up, Eur/Usd was holding strong too so Eur/Gbp didn't fall that much. That's why I took a profit at just +3 pips. Lucky enough as most of the time this trade was floating loss.

One mistake in the above trade is looking at my entry, I was supposed to short after candle closes. But I didn't, I short right before it closes and it went back up the white 50SMA line. Only at the start of New York session did it break through, but still not that strong.

Interesting trade for my Gbp/Usd. Again it was floating loss the whole Asia to London session until it hit take profit in New York session for +50 pips. One of the mistake here is I short when the candle still closes below the white 50 SMA line (the latest yellow line is today's trade). So the moment my order of long hit, it re-bounced back downwards.

Here is one reason why I believe in support and resistance in trading, though it doesn't happen 100% all the time. My past 3 Gbp/Usd trades has been exactly the same price entry - long at 1.5660, notice all 3 yellow lines, and my take profit level somewhat the same.

The first trade for this price was actually an aim to pull through the resistance, taking a ride around 50 pips. The second trade was actually buy-limit, because as you know, once a resistance has been broken, it will turn to a support (can read more on support and resistance here). And the third was like the first, though a little dangerously done due to the MA lines.

-------

As for poker, currently bankroll is ranging and slightly down a bit. Not as spiral down as last week. I am currently playing only sit & gos STT & MTT and learning to be tight. I also played the PokerStars Guinness World Record tournament, yesterday morning at my country time 1:30am!! The record was that there are 200,000 players registered for the tournament. Top 12k got cash prize and first was $50,000. The buy-in was only $1.

I was done before the first break finishing around 170,000+ ranking lol. The game was like 20k tables happening at the same time and thousands of people were eliminated even 5 minutes into the game. I am beginning to enjoy the thrill of MTT. I tried the best I could to just shoved n fold play, but my 99 ran into KK and that was it. I thought I will have a tired night since it started at 1.30am but ended up I longed to be tired from it.

I am now playing maximum two tables and taking things slowly. After straight 6 days of losses and beats I think I need a break from poker soon. Except yesterday after the guinness tourney my cash games won one of the biggest pot I played - guy with KK limp, button raises with QK and I called with JJ. Flop came QJx. I checked, KK raises, QJ re-raises all in, I also re-raised all in as I had them covered. KK called, and turn came another J giving me the quads and WHAM! Felt like finally a sunlight after streaks of losses.

There must be something wrong with my play and I need to reflect and work on it.

Good luck for the week people!

Black.

USD/CAD down but not out....

A cold chilly night, im bored... itchy.. urge came.. urge to click n trade. Never been able to totally cast this bad habit out. It has been alot better though.

So when shit happens, u can only hope that the damage can be minimized, better still... profit from it. But tonight isnt going to be a easy night.

The above printscreen image maybe the ugliest u have even seen, im sorry but im still very much a [accessories >> paint] user.

Time is 2000 local time, 2 datas pointing weakness in CAD... thats when i went in LONG on USD/CAD, entry level @ "1" . After entry, it has been hovering around that area...

Then came 2130 local time, green datas for USD, it confirms my believe that this pair with go higher... BUT!!!! Prices plunge down for dont know what fciasjcsax reason, and end that 5min session with a long shadow.. Sadly, my stop loss got triggered as a result. Thats for "2".

Went LONG again, on "3", targetting around "4" area.. TP hit, profitted 5pips at the end of the day.. Moral of the story? Market doesnt care about ur predictions or whatsoever, its merciless i guess??

But im happy to end green for the day after a scare at the start...

Bottle

November Review

FXDD: Withdrawn
Oanda: +17%
Poker: Busto! (have re-deposit)

November passed by really quickly. I had losing streak starting of the month, and slowly fought my way back. I still maintain a non-scalping mode, where I simply set my orders and leave the chart. I also learn about not messing too much with the trade when they have not hit your stop/loss or take-profit, I still meddle though but reduced. Leaving trades over night no longer bother me as much as used to be.

I am currently using a very comfortable position size, increased a little. I will continue to increase when my capital grow a little more. In fact I did increase early this month but the moment I increased I faced losses thats why I reduced them again lol so typical. I maintain a stop/loss of about maximum 5% of my account, because I don't want a huge drawdowns again. Even successful traders move up the ladder with a little lost here and there. I am still working on my risk:reward ratio.

Highlight of the month was probably the last week of the month, with a big reaped off Aud/Usd +480 pips, my highest record ever (still much lower than my record loss hehe). That trade I have also cultivated a good risk:reward ratio, letting the profit run feels really good. Admittedly, there was one position I did close early, but was compensated early this week with a few Longs.

I learn how I should swing the trades and not sit down and bust my account, my temper get blown up easily. So I am not gonna trade the NFP news tonight. Some people prefer scalp, some swing, some intraday, and some position. It is finding out who you are. I kinda know the answer for me, but being a profitable trader is still another story.

That leads me to think about my poker journey. I was still thinking early last month whether I should simply focus on full-ring cash games, sit & gos (STT & MTT), or heads-up SNG.

I have bad results with cash games, but played them because they are fastest way to earn VIP points for bonuses. My time for sit & gos are limited because you can't leave the table whenever you want. I have been doing good with heads-up SNG and has shown profit. I love it and my buddy (who plays with me) also feel I should simply focus on heads-up.

And then I realised otherwise. I have a e-mail pen-pal friend (who read this blog) told me heads-up are like scalping trading. I thought I could conquer it but ALAS, I have bad beats and I keep on registering for new tourney (HU-SNG) and even highest buy-ins and I play badly due to tilting, much like revenge trading.

I got crushed in cash games either. Playing too much table and bad beats made me re-buy n re-buy and throw the money into the pot, fastest way to drawdown in poker IMO.

Now I am turning to Sit & Gos and not multi-tabling, not touching the rest (HU-SNG & FR Cash games). So if I got beaten I may not be so tempted to re-buy because they are more tiring games. I working on it now. For past two days I simply played the Sit & Gos, finishing a few of them right before the money finishes -_-. But on the other hand, it shows some improvements. My last two games of 45 men SNG came in 3rd & 7th.

Lets take it nice and slow from here, tilty head.

Anyway, have a good weekend people.

Black.

Orders Hit & Run!

Yesterday EURUSD long order at 1.3440 hit and it was ranging throughout the Asia session before take-profit 1.35 hit during the second hour into London session. Bagged a good +60 pips.

My GBPUSD order also hit, 1.5660, noticed it was the price as the day before, I felt where resistance will now turn into support. My take-profit is almost exactly the same spot, but I also manually closed them on a +60 pips profit.

Good way to start the month. Tomorrow's Non-Farm Payroll announcement I should be sitting at the side lines (hopefully). So that maybe it for the week. Will post a November review tomorrow.

TGIF & Good luck friends!

Black.

Another Fantastic Day

Caught some nice move off Aud/Usd when my limit order finally hit and there was a surge during the major central banks announcement on reducing the dollar loans to banks by half percentage point. Well, I didn't expect that move to be that huge though, but always glad enough I wasn't on the opposite side! +80 pips

My Gbp/Usd has also been triggered during the surge. It was moving towards my 80 pips take-profit but I closed them on +50, under-estimating the news effect.

Current orders:
Eur/Usd - Long 1.3440
Aud/Usd - Long 1.0075
Gbp/Usd - Long 1.5660

Black.